Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis – January 25-29, 2016 -Forecast

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Updated: Jan 23, 2016, 08:46 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: Crude Oil gained almost 10% this week after a strong rally on Friday to close the week at 32.25 gaining $2.93 during

Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis – January 25-29, 2016 -Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil gained almost 10% this week after a strong rally on Friday to close the week at 32.25 gaining $2.93 during Friday’s sharp rally as speculators set up a pump and dump. Oil futures jumped 9% on Friday to settle at their highest level in two weeks, rebounding from oversold conditions as traders bet that major central banks will announce fresh stimulus measures that may improve sentiment for the beleaguered commodity.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi hinted Thursday at more easing measures amid renewed pressure on inflation in European economies from falling oil prices. Traders were also speculating that Japan’s central bank might increase its asset-purchasing program at its end-of-January meeting. Global bourses bounced on the stimulus talk.

Oil production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell by 130,000 barrels a day in December from a month earlier, to 32.28 million barrels a day, according to a Platt’s survey of OPEC oil industry officials and analysts released Friday. Platt’s attributed the decline to output cuts in Iraq, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis lowered output by 50,000 barrels a day to 10.1 million barrels a day, but haven’t given any indication that they are ready to abandon the “market-share strategy that it persuaded OPEC to adopt in November 2014,” Platt’s said.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Major Economic Events for the week:


	Cur.		Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Monday, January 25, 2016
	EUR		German Ifo Business Climate Index		108.4	108.7
Tuesday, January 26, 2016
		Holiday	Australia – Australia Day
	USD		CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)		96.5	96.5
Wednesday, January 27, 2016
	AUD		CPI (QoQ) (Q4)		0.3%	0.5%
	USD		New Home Sales (Dec)		500K	490K
	USD		Crude Oil Inventories			3.979M
Thursday, January 28, 2016
	NZD		Interest Rate Decision			2.50%
	GBP		GDP (YoY) (Q4)		1.9%	2.1%
	GBP		GDP (QoQ) (Q4)		0.5%	0.4%
	USD		Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)		-0.2%
	USD		Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)		0.7%	-0.9%
Friday, January 29, 2016
	EUR		CPI (YoY) (Jan)		0.4%	0.2%
	USD		GDP (QoQ) (Q4)		0.8%	2.0%
	CAD		GDP (MoM) (Nov)		0.2%