Crude Oil saw a huge gain this week adding 3.85% as the wildfire continued to blaze across the Canadian oil fields. Late in the week workers were finally
Crude Oil saw a huge gain this week adding 3.85% as the wildfire continued to blaze across the Canadian oil fields. Late in the week workers were finally able to return to the fields and production might resume in a week or so. Crude oil is trading at 46.38 near the very top of its range while Brent oil ended at 47.89 up 5.55% on shifting Saudi outlooks.
The pain of low oil prices and over supply may be easing as global stockpiles reduce and signs of an increase in demand begin to look more realistic. The International Energy Agency sees strength coming back to the market but the stronger dollar is weighing on the price this week.
American crude production is gradually decreasing and is down more than 8 percent from its highs in 2015 to 8.8 million barrels a day, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Production has been reported falling for the past 9 weeks.
The report also revealed an unexpected decline this week in crude inventories by 3.4 million barrels.
Canadian oil output was temporarily hit due to closure of plants following the severe wildfires last week.
The shift in energy leadership in Saudi Arabia surprised the market at the beginning of the week as 20-year industry veteran Ali Al Naimi stepped down and handed the mantle of Saudi’s oil policy to the former health minister and Chairman of Saudi Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.
This shift was part of a wider government reshuffle by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Al-Falih takes over a newly merged ministry of energy, industry and mineral wealth.
Al-Naimi will no doubt welcome the move as he has been attempting to retire for several years, but many industry watchers had expected him to remain at the helm until after the June meeting.
With the collapse of the Doha talks last month, the Saudi government is making it clear its time to move on. Al Naimi meanwhile stays connected with the government as advisor to the Royal Court.
The market welcomed al-Falih’s somewhat expected appointment due to his intense knowledge and his experience of the oil industry, but no-one expects a change in Saudi Arabia’s policy.
All eyes are beginning to focus on OPEC’s first official meeting of 2016 on June 3rd in Vienna.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
WEEKLY
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.
Major Economic Events for the week:
Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | ||||
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 | ||||||||
GBP | CPI (YoY) (Apr) | 0.5% | 0.5% | |||||
USD | Building Permits (Apr) | 1.130M | 1.076M | |||||
USD | Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) | 0.2% | 0.1% | |||||
Wednesday, May 18, 2016 | ||||||||
JPY | GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.1% | -0.3% | |||||
GBP | Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar) | 1.7% | 1.8% | |||||
GBP | Claimant Count Change (Apr) | 4.0K | 6.7K | |||||
EUR | CPI (YoY) (Apr) | -0.2% | -0.2% | |||||
USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -3.410M | ||||||
Thursday, May 19, 2016 | ||||||||
AUD | Employment Change (Apr) | 12.5K | 26.1K | |||||
GBP | Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 0.5% | -1.3% | |||||
USD | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 3.5 | -1.6 | |||||
Friday, May 20, 2016 | ||||||||
CAD | Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) | 0.1% | 0.7% | |||||
CAD | Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) | -0.5% | 0.2% | |||||
USD | Existing Home Sales (Apr) | 5.40M | 5.33M |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 13 12:00 Iceland Holds bond auction
May 18 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Feb 2026 Bund
May 18 17:20 Sweden Announces details of bond auction on May 25
May 19 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction
May 19 11:03 Sweden Hold bond auction
May 19 11:50 France Holds bond auction
May 20 11:03 Sweden Sek 1.992bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond