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Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis- November 30 – December 4, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:  Crude Oil bounced up and down all week but little had to do with real supply and demand factors. Terrorism,

Oil Weekly Forecast

Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis- November 30 - December 4, 2015 - Forecast
Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis- November 30 - December 4, 2015 - Forecast
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: 

Crude Oil bounced up and down all week but little had to do with real supply and demand factors. Terrorism, geopolitical tensions and OPEC comments kept the prices moving. The only winners were energy speculators which push up prices to sell only to buy on the bottoms to sell again on the top. Brent Oil ended the week at 44.89 and WTI at 41.77.  Crude oil showed a weekly gain of 3.42% a remarkable climb.

Before US markets went on holiday, the US Department of Energy released data showing the country´s commercial crude supplies in the week to November 20 rose at a slower pace, giving a bit of relief from a supply glut. 

Reports that Russia is not taking military action against Turkey for the shooting down of one of its fighter jets on the Syrian border also eased fears that the tense situation in the region could escalate and disrupt oil supplies.

 Moscow on Thursday said retaliatory measures will focus on using its leverage to tighten the screws on Turkey´s economy, including halting joint economic projects, restricting financial and trade transactions and changing customs duties.

The oversupply in the oil market is killing prices, and it’s only set to get worse in 2016. Oil prices are over 50% lower than they were last year, but according to Goldman Sachs and an OPEC official, oil could crater to near $20 per barrel in 2016.

Venezuelan oil minister Eulogio del Pino said on Sunday that OPEC could not allow an oil-price war and must take action to stabilize the crude market soon. When asked how low oil prices could go in 2016 if OPEC didn’t change its policy, he said: “mid-20s.”

Meanwhile, Michele Della Vigny from Goldman Sachs told the “Today” program on BBC’s Radio 4 that oil could fall to as little as $20 a barrel. He added, however, that there was only about a “15% probability that this might happen” and that if oil were to fall to this level, it would only be temporary “shock to the system” before the market stabilized again.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

 

crude oil

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WEEKLY

  1. This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  2. Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  3. Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Major Economic Events for the week:

                                                            Event                                                 Consensus          Previous                            

TUESDAY, DEC 01

                                             JPY         Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda                                                                            

                                             AUD       RBA Interest Rate Decision                          2%          2%                        

                                             AUD       RBA Rate Statement                                                                                  

                                             EUR       Unemployment Change (Nov)                     -5K         -5K                       

                                             EUR       Unemployment Rate (Nov)                          6.4%      6.4%                    

WEDNESDAY, DEC 02

                                             AUD       RBA’s Governor Glenn Stevens                                                                               

                                             EUR       Consumer Price Index                                    1.1%      1.1%                    

                                             EUR       Consumer Price Index                                    0.2%      0.1%                    

                                             EUR       Producer Price Index                                      -0.4%     -0.3%                   

                                             EUR       Producer Price Index                                      -3.2%     -3.1%                   

                                             CAD       BoC Interest Rate Decision                                         0.5%                    

                                             CAD       BOC Rate Statement                                                                                  

THURSDAY, DEC 03

                                             EUR       ECB Interest Rate Decision                           0.05%    0.05%                  

                                             EUR       ECB press conference                                                                                

                                             USD       Fed’s Yellen testifies                                                                                  

FRIDAY, DEC 04

                                             USD       Unemployment Rate                                     5%          5%                        

                                             USD       Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)                                200K      271K                    

                                             CAD       Change in Employment                                 0.7K       44.4K                   

                                             CAD       Unemployment Rate                                     7%          7%                        

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

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