Silver Fundamental Analysis July 23, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver is trading at 26.883 following cues from gold. September silver futures bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as trading has also been choppy recently. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $28.445 an ounce.

Silver may remain weak as the week draws to a close, it will again be taking cues from the US equities. As discussed in gold’s outlook, Spain is requesting additional aid and the  dishearten bond auction has left no other way to reduce its borrowing cost. Debt is bound to swell and so, euro may remain under pressure. This may keep the metal under stress.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 20

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Import Price Index (QoQ) 

2.4%

 

1.5% 

 

-1.2% 

 

 

 

04:00

 

NZD

 

 

 

Credit Card Spending (YoY) 

4.6%

 

 

 

3.9% 

 

 

 

06:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

Estonian PPI (MoM) 

0.00%

 

 

 

0.00% 

 

 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German PPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German PPI (YoY) 

1.6%

 

1.8% 

 

2.1% 

 

 

 

08:00

 

DKK

 

 

 

Danish Retail Sales (YoY) 

-1.2%

 

 

 

-0.5% 

  

 

08:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

Dutch Consumer Spending 

-1.90

 

 

 

-2.10 

  

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Public Sector Net Borrowing 

12.1B

 

11.0B 

 

16.1B 

  

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

 

2.0% 

 

1.2% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 24

7:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

45.2

7:00

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

47.9

7:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

45.0

7:30

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

49.9

8:00

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

45.1

8:30

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals

30.2K

9:00

EUR

Flash Services PMI

47.1

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

52.5

Jul 25

8:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

105.3

 

8:30

GBP

Prelim GDP q/q

-0.3%

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

-11

13:00

EUR

Belgium NBB Business Climate

-13.2

14:00

USD

New Home Sales

369K

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Jul 26

6:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate

5.8

8:00

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

2.9%

12:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.7%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

5.9%

Jul 27

27th-31st

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

-0.6%

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

-0.1%

7:00

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

1.16

12:30

USD

Advance GDP q/q

1.9%

13:55

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.0

 

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