Silver Monthly Fundamental Forecast April 2013

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silver monthly bnsOutlook and Recommendation

Silver remained weak in the 28 price range unable to break free. The shiny metal closed the month at 28.305 and traded in a monthly range between 29.343 and 27.947 the most restricted range the metal has seen in months. The average price was 28.788 well below the forecast of 30.00 per ounce. Even when investors who are in the market for safe-haven assets have been largely ignoring silver. Wednesday, the metal took a notable intraday dip, falling to a low of $28.10. That occurred as gold and the dollar attracted safe-haven support from investors concerned about the opening of Cypriot banks following an extended closure due to the nation’s financial crisis. Silver eventually clawed its way back and closed on the New York spot market at $28.69, with losses of only $0.07.

On Thursday, after the Cypriot banks reopened, conditions were deemed relatively calm. The risk of bank runs in other nations did not materialize. The previous day’s safety seeking largely evaporated, and though that had not particularly benefited silver, the improved sentiment on Thursday did act as a source of pressure on the metal.

Reuters reported that silver pulled back on Friday, erasing earlier gains, as investors were seeking less shelter in precious metals on the announcement of a Greece-Cyprus deal. 

Maximum: 29,343

Minimum: 27,947

Difference: 1.396

Average: 28,788

Rev. %: -0.93

Base metals such as copper are also lower as traders stay away. Commitment of traders reported that fund managers slashed 2476 long contracts taking the total towards 22064 contracts, on 19 March 2013. Meanwhile, short positions were increased by 6479 contracts to 47782 contracts. Total net short positions therefore moved up by 53% to 16763 contracts. Meanwhile, news of disruption in Copper is bringing no support to the metal.

The major reason given was the lower usage in major consuming regions of Copper. Another worry is the stupendous rise of LME Copper inventories that has reached a 10 year high in London Metal Exchange and increased by 78% since January 2013 to reach 569775 tons.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Central Bank – Fed Reserve

Date of next meeting or last meeting: May 01, 2013

Current Rate: 0.00-0.25%

silver BNS April

Economic events for the month of April affecting EUR, CHF, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Apr 1

9:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

54.2

54.2

Apr 2

3:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

48.9

47.9

Apr 3

3:30

GBP

Construction PMI

47.7

46.8

 

7:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

203K

198K

 

9:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

55.9

56.0

Apr 4

3:30

GBP

Services PMI

51.4

51.8

 

6:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

375B

375B

  

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

 

6:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

0.75%

  

USD

Unemployment Claims

354K

357K

Apr 5

2:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

430.0B

 

7:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

201K

236K

  

USD

Trade Balance

-44.6B

-44.4B

Apr 8

20:30

CNY

CPI y/y

 

3.2%

Apr 9

2:15

CHF

CPI m/m

 

0.3%

 

3:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

-1.5%

Apr 12

7:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

 

1.0%

  

USD

PPI m/m

 

0.7%

  

USD

Retail Sales m/m

 

1.1%

 

8:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

78.6

Apr 16

3:30

GBP

CPI y/y

  
 

7:30

USD

Building Permits

  
  

USD

Core CPI m/m

  

Apr 17

3:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

  
 

4:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

  

Apr 18

3:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

  
 

7:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

  
 

9:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

  

Apr 22

9:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

  
 

20:45

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI

  

Apr 23

2:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

  
 

2:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

  
 

9:00

USD

New Home Sales

  

Apr 24

3:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

  
 

7:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

  

Apr 25

3:30

GBP

Prelim GDP q/q

  
 

7:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

  

Apr 26

7:30

USD

Advance GDP q/q

 

0.4%

Apr 29

9:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

  

Apr 30

9:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

  

 

 

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