Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 12 –16, 2012, Forecast

Posted November 10, 2012 8:18 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 12 –16, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: Silver futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific quantity of silver (eg. 30000 grams) at a predetermined price on a future delivery date.

Some Facts about Silver

Silver is a soft, shiny and heavy metallic element with a brilliant white luster. A very ductile and malleable metal, its thermal and electrical conductivity is the highest of all known metals.

Besides being used as a store of value, other main uses of silver include applications in areas such as electronics, photography and as antiseptics.

Consumers and producers of silver can manage silver price risk by purchasing and selling silver futures. Silver producers can employ a short hedge to lock in a selling price for the silver they produce while businesses that require silver can utilize a long hedge to secure a purchase price for the commodity they need.

Silver futures are also traded by speculators who assume the price risk that hedgers try to avoid in return for a chance to profit from favorable silver price movement. Speculators buy silver futures when they believe that silver prices will go up. Conversely, they will sell silver futures when they think that silver prices will fall.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver ended the week on an up mode, trading at 32.593 as traders moved to precious metals for safe haven. Risk aversion took over market sentiment after Mr. Obama won re-election on Tuesday. Speculators began to worry about the US fiscal cliff looming on January 1, 2013. Most positive eco data from the US and China also helped strengthen industrial metals.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Nov 09, 2012	32.593	32.320	32.783	32.067	0.89%
Nov 08, 2012	32.307	31.818	32.435	31.640	1.53%
Nov 07, 2012	31.820	31.892	32.408	31.225	-0.22%
Nov 06, 2012	31.890	31.195	32.273	31.068	2.23%
Nov 05, 2012	31.193	31.050	31.243	30.660	0.45%

Reports from the COMEX showed a drop in inventory, due to a higher demand for spot silver.

Silver also shot up on heavy speculative off take from investors and good industrial buying.

In Europe, silver rose to a three-week high amid optimism over soft US monetary policy after President Barack Obama’s re-election.

Market analysts said increased buying by speculators on hopes a rise in demand in the spot market during festive season amid a firm global trend mainly pushed up silver futures.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for November 5 – 9 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Nov. 05	EUR	Spanish Unemployment Change	128.20K	90.50K	79.60K
	GBP	Services PMI	50.6	52.0	52.2
	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	54.2	54.5	55.1
Nov. 06	CHF	SECO Consumer Climate	-17	-22	-17
	GBP	Halifax House Price Index (MoM)	-0.7%	0.3%	-0.4%
	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.7%	-0.6%	-0.5%
	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	0.1%	0.3%	-1.2%
	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-2.6%	-1.6%	-1.0%
	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	-3.3%	-0.5%	-0.8%
	RUB	Russian CPI (MoM)	0.5%	0.7%	0.6%
	GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate	0.5%		0.8%
Nov. 07	CHF	CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%
	EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.2%
	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.8%	-0.5%	-0.4%
	USD	10-Year Note Auction	1.675%		1.700%
Nov. 08	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B	375B
	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
	USD	Trade Balance	-41.5B	-45.0B	-43.8B
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	355K	370K	363K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3127K	3253K	3262K
Nov. 09	CNY	Chinese CPI (YoY)	1.7%	1.9%	1.9%
	CNY	Chinese PPI (YoY)	-2.8%	-2.7%	-3.6%
	CNY	Chinese CPI (MoM)	-0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
	CNY	Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)	20.7%	20.6%	20.5%
	CNY	Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)	9.6%	9.4%	9.2%
	CNY	Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)	14.5%	14.0%	14.2%
	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%
	GBP	Trade Balance	-8.4B	-8.9B	-10.0B
	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	0.5%	0.0%	1.1%
	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	84.9	83.0	82.6

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 49.813 on Apr 25, 2011

Average: 28.468 over this period.

Lowest: 14.655 on Feb 05, 2010

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Nov. 13	07:45	EUR	French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ)		-0.1%
	08:15	CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.3%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.3%	2.2%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.2%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.4%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	-0.5%	-1.2%
	10:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-9.8	-11.5
	19:00	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-114.0B	75.0B
Nov. 14	07:45	EUR	French CPI (MoM)		-0.3%
	09:30	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus	1.9%	1.7%
	09:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change		-4.0K
	10:00	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.9%	0.6%
	13:30	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.2%	1.1%
	13:30	USD	PPI (MoM)	0.2%	1.1%
	13:30	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.2%	1.1%
	13:30	USD	PPI (YoY)	2.6%	2.1%
	13:30	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	2.4%	2.3%
Nov. 15	07:00	EUR	German GDP (QoQ)	0.2%	0.3%
	07:00	EUR	German GDP (YoY)	0.8%	0.5%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.1%	0.6%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	1.7%	2.5%
	10:00	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.5%	2.5%
	10:00	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.2%	-0.2%
	10:00	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		1.5%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Nov 12 10:10 Slovakia

Nov 12 10:30 Germany

Nov 13 01:30 Japan

Nov 13 09:30 Holland

Nov 13 10:10 Greece

Nov 13 10:10 Italy

Nov 13 10:30 Belgium

Nov 13 15:30 UK

Nov 14 10:10 Italy

Nov 14 10:10 Sweden

Nov 14 10:30 Germany

Nov 14 10:30 Swiss

Nov 14 11:00 Norway

Nov 15 01:30 Japan

Nov 15 09:50 France

Nov 15 10:30 UK

Nov 15 10:50 France

Nov 15 16:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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