Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 12 –16, 2012, Forecast

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Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 12 –16, 2012, Forecast

Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis November 12 –16, 2012, Forecast

Introduction: Silver futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific quantity of silver (eg. 30000 grams) at a predetermined price on a future delivery date.

Some Facts about Silver

Silver is a soft, shiny and heavy metallic element with a brilliant white luster. A very ductile and malleable metal, its thermal and electrical conductivity is the highest of all known metals.

Besides being used as a store of value, other main uses of silver include applications in areas such as electronics, photography and as antiseptics.

Consumers and producers of silver can manage silver price risk by purchasing and selling silver futures. Silver producers can employ a short hedge to lock in a selling price for the silver they produce while businesses that require silver can utilize a long hedge to secure a purchase price for the commodity they need.

Silver futures are also traded by speculators who assume the price risk that hedgers try to avoid in return for a chance to profit from favorable silver price movement. Speculators buy silver futures when they believe that silver prices will go up. Conversely, they will sell silver futures when they think that silver prices will fall.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver ended the week on an up mode, trading at 32.593 as traders moved to precious metals for safe haven. Risk aversion took over market sentiment after Mr. Obama won re-election on Tuesday. Speculators began to worry about the US fiscal cliff looming on January 1, 2013. Most positive eco data from the US and China also helped strengthen industrial metals.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Nov 09, 2012

32.593

32.320

32.783

32.067

0.89%

Nov 08, 2012

32.307

31.818

32.435

31.640

1.53%

Nov 07, 2012

31.820

31.892

32.408

31.225

-0.22%

Nov 06, 2012

31.890

31.195

32.273

31.068

2.23%

Nov 05, 2012

31.193

31.050

31.243

30.660

0.45%

Reports from the COMEX showed a drop in inventory, due to a higher demand for spot silver.

Silver also shot up on heavy speculative off take from investors and good industrial buying.

In Europe, silver rose to a three-week high amid optimism over soft US monetary policy after President Barack Obama’s re-election.

Market analysts said increased buying by speculators on hopes a rise in demand in the spot market during festive season amid a firm global trend mainly pushed up silver futures.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for November 5 – 9 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Nov. 05 

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change 

128.20K

90.50K

79.60K

 

GBP

Services PMI 

50.6

52.0

52.2

 

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

54.2

54.5

55.1

Nov. 06 

CHF

SECO Consumer Climate 

-17

-22

-17

 

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.7%

0.3%

-0.4%

 

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.7%

-0.6%

-0.5%

 

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

0.1%

0.3%

-1.2%

 

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.6%

-1.6%

-1.0%

 

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-3.3%

-0.5%

-0.8%

 

RUB

Russian CPI (MoM) 

0.5%

0.7%

0.6%

 

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate 

0.5%

 

0.8%

Nov. 07

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

0.3%

0.3%

 

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.2%

 

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.8%

-0.5%

-0.4%

 

USD

10-Year Note Auction 

1.675%

 

1.700%

Nov. 08 

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

 

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B

375B

375B

 

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75%

0.75%

0.75%

 

USD

Trade Balance 

-41.5B

-45.0B

-43.8B

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

355K

370K

363K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3127K

3253K

3262K

Nov. 09 

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

1.9%

1.9%

 

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-2.8%

-2.7%

-3.6%

 

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.1%

0.3%

 

CNY

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.7%

20.6%

20.5%

 

CNY

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.6%

9.4%

9.2%

 

CNY

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

14.5%

14.0%

14.2%

 

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

 

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

 

GBP

Trade Balance 

-8.4B

-8.9B

-10.0B

 

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.5%

0.0%

1.1%

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

84.9

83.0

82.6

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 49.813 on Apr 25, 2011

Average: 28.468 over this period.

Lowest: 14.655 on Feb 05, 2010

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Nov. 13

07:45

EUR

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

 

-0.1%

 

08:15

CHF

PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.3%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.3%

2.2%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

-0.1%

-0.2%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.4%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

-0.5%

-1.2%

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-9.8

-11.5

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-114.0B

75.0B

Nov. 14

07:45

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

 

-0.3%

 

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.9%

1.7%

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

 

-4.0K

 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.9%

0.6%

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

1.1%

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

1.1%

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

1.1%

 

13:30

USD

PPI (YoY) 

2.6%

2.1%

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.4%

2.3%

 Nov. 15

07:00

EUR

German GDP (QoQ) 

0.2%

0.3%

 

07:00

EUR

German GDP (YoY) 

0.8%

0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.6%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

1.7%

2.5%

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.5%

2.5%

 

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

-0.2%

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.5%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Nov 12 10:10 Slovakia

Nov 12 10:30 Germany

Nov 13 01:30 Japan

Nov 13 09:30 Holland

Nov 13 10:10 Greece

Nov 13 10:10 Italy

Nov 13 10:30 Belgium

Nov 13 15:30 UK

Nov 14 10:10 Italy

Nov 14 10:10 Sweden

Nov 14 10:30 Germany

Nov 14 10:30 Swiss

Nov 14 11:00 Norway

Nov 15 01:30 Japan

Nov 15 09:50 France

Nov 15 10:30 UK

Nov 15 10:50 France

Nov 15 16:00 US

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