Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 10-14, 2012, Forecast
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Introduction: Silver futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific quantity of silver (eg. 30000 grams) at a predetermined price on a future delivery date.
Some Facts about Silver
Silver is a soft, shiny and heavy metallic element with a brilliant white luster. A very ductile and malleable metal, its thermal and electrical conductivity is the highest of all known metals.
Besides being used as a store of value, other main uses of silver include applications in areas such as electronics, photography and as antiseptics.
Consumers and producers of silver can manage silver price risk by purchasing and selling silver futures. Silver producers can employ a short hedge to lock in a selling price for the silver they produce while businesses that require silver can utilize a long hedge to secure a purchase price for the commodity they need.
Silver futures are also traded by speculators who assume the price risk that hedgers try to avoid in return for a chance to profit from favorable silver price movement. Speculators buy silver futures when they believe that silver prices will go up. Conversely, they will sell silver futures when they think that silver prices will fall.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
Silver climbed to a multi month high to close at 33.722 off the high of the week at 33.773. Precious metals soared on announcements from the ECB introducing their new “Outright Monetary Transaction” program and on a lackluster jobs report in the US, which improved the odds of Fed stimulus at this week’s FOMC meeting on the 13th.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Sep 07, 2012 |
33.722 |
32.610 |
33.773 |
32.010 |
3.37% |
|
Sep 06, 2012 |
32.623 |
32.263 |
33.037 |
32.252 |
1.13% |
|
Sep 05, 2012 |
32.258 |
32.255 |
32.415 |
32.002 |
0.00% |
|
Sep 04, 2012 |
32.258 |
32.180 |
32.468 |
31.970 |
0.23% |
|
Sep 03, 2012 |
32.185 |
31.653 |
32.358 |
31.578 |
1.67% |
Prices to Buy Silver meantime climbed to $372.40 per ounce this morning – on course for a 4% weekly gain – while on the currency markets, the Euro rose to its highest level in more than two months, a day after ECB president Mario Draghi announced the new OMT program, aimed at tackling the Eurozone crisis by buying distressed Eurozone sovereign bonds.
Industrial metals soared on Friday on the weakened dollar and the possibility of stimulus, along with news from China, which seems to be setting the groundwork for a massive stimulus package after this week’s eco data releases.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest: 49.813 on Apr 25, 2011
Average: 28.468 over this period.
Lowest: 14.655 on Feb 05, 2010
Major Economic Events for the week of September 3-7, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 03 |
08:15 |
CHF |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
3.2% |
4.3% |
3.3% |
|
|
08:30 |
CHF |
SVME PMI |
46.7 |
49.0 |
48.6 |
|
|
08:45 |
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
43.60 |
45.00 |
44.30 |
|
|
08:50 |
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
46.0 |
46.2 |
46.2 |
|
|
08:55 |
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
44.7 |
45.1 |
45.1 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
45.1 |
45.3 |
45.3 |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
49.5 |
46.2 |
45.2 |
|
Sep. 04 |
06:45 |
CHF |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.1% |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
08:00 |
EUR |
Spanish Unemployment Change |
38.20K |
-27.80K |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
49.6 |
50.0 |
49.8 |
|
|
15:40 |
GBP |
Services PMI |
53.7 |
51.5 |
51.0 |
|
Sep. 05 |
08:15 |
CHF |
CPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
-0.5% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
10:35 |
EUR |
German 10-Year Bund Auction |
1.420% |
1.420% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) |
2.2% |
1.8% |
1.6% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1.7% |
|
Sep. 06 |
08:00 |
GBP |
Halifax House Price Index (MoM) |
-0.4% |
0.3% |
-0.7% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
German Factory Orders (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.2% |
-1.6% |
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
12:00 |
GBP |
BOE QE Total |
375B |
375B |
375B |
|
|
12:45 |
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.75% |
0.75% |
0.75% |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
201K |
140K |
173K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
365K |
370K |
377K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3322K |
3315K |
3328K |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
53.7 |
52.5 |
52.6 |
|
Sep. 07 |
06:45 |
CHF |
Unemployment Rate |
2.9% |
2.9% |
2.9% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
2.9% |
1.5% |
-2.4% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
3.2% |
2.0% |
-2.9% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input (MoM) |
2.0% |
1.7% |
0.4% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
PPI Input (YoY) |
1.4% |
1.2% |
-2.4% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Industrial Production (YoY) |
-0.8% |
-2.8% |
-3.8% |
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
German Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.3% |
0.2% |
-0.4% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
96K |
125K |
141K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.1% |
8.3% |
8.3% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Average Weekly Hours |
34.4 |
34.5 |
34.4 |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Private Nonfarm Payrolls |
103K |
138K |
162K |
|
|
15:00 |
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com
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