Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 10-14, 2012, Forecast

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Introduction: Silver futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific quantity of silver (eg. 30000 grams) at a predetermined price on a future delivery date.

Some Facts about Silver

Silver is a soft, shiny and heavy metallic element with a brilliant white luster. A very ductile and malleable metal, its thermal and electrical conductivity is the highest of all known metals.

Besides being used as a store of value, other main uses of silver include applications in areas such as electronics, photography and as antiseptics.

Consumers and producers of silver can manage silver price risk by purchasing and selling silver futures. Silver producers can employ a short hedge to lock in a selling price for the silver they produce while businesses that require silver can utilize a long hedge to secure a purchase price for the commodity they need.

Silver futures are also traded by speculators who assume the price risk that hedgers try to avoid in return for a chance to profit from favorable silver price movement. Speculators buy silver futures when they believe that silver prices will go up. Conversely, they will sell silver futures when they think that silver prices will fall.

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

Silver  climbed to a multi month high to close at 33.722 off the high of the week at 33.773. Precious metals soared on announcements from the ECB introducing their new “Outright Monetary Transaction” program and on a lackluster jobs report in the US, which improved the odds of Fed stimulus at this week’s FOMC meeting on the 13th.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Sep 07, 2012

33.722

32.610

33.773

32.010

3.37%

Sep 06, 2012

32.623

32.263

33.037

32.252

1.13%

Sep 05, 2012

32.258

32.255

32.415

32.002

0.00%

Sep 04, 2012

32.258

32.180

32.468

31.970

0.23%

Sep 03, 2012

32.185

31.653

32.358

31.578

1.67%

Prices to Buy Silver meantime climbed to $372.40 per ounce this morning – on course for a 4% weekly gain – while on the currency markets, the Euro rose to its highest level in more than two months, a day after ECB president Mario Draghi announced the new OMT program, aimed at tackling the Eurozone crisis by buying distressed Eurozone sovereign bonds.

Industrial metals soared on Friday on the weakened dollar and the possibility of stimulus, along with news from China, which seems to be setting the groundwork for a massive stimulus package after this week’s eco data releases.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 49.813 on Apr 25, 2011

Average: 28.468 over this period.

Lowest: 14.655 on Feb 05, 2010

Major Economic Events for the week of September 3-7, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 03 

08:15

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY) 

3.2%

4.3%

3.3%

 

08:30

CHF

SVME PMI 

46.7

49.0

48.6

 

08:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI 

43.60

45.00

44.30

 

08:50

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.0

46.2

46.2

 

08:55

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

44.7

45.1

45.1

 

09:00

EUR

Manufacturing PMI 

45.1

45.3

45.3

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI 

49.5

46.2

45.2

Sep. 04

06:45

CHF

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.1%

0.2%

0.5%

 

08:00

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change 

38.20K

 

-27.80K

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

49.6

50.0

49.8

 

15:40

GBP

Services PMI 

53.7

51.5

51.0

Sep. 05

08:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.1%

-0.5%

 

10:00

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

-0.2%

0.1%

 

10:35

EUR

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.420%

 

1.420%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

2.2%

1.8%

1.6%

 

13:30

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

1.5%

1.5%

1.7%

Sep. 06 

08:00

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.4%

0.3%

-0.7%

 

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.2%

 

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

0.5%

0.2%

-1.6%

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

 

12:00

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B

375B

375B

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75%

0.75%

0.75%

 

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

201K

140K

173K

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

365K

370K

377K

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3322K

3315K

3328K

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

53.7

52.5

52.6

Sep. 07

06:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate 

2.9%

2.9%

2.9%

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

2.9%

1.5%

-2.4%

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

3.2%

2.0%

-2.9%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

2.0%

1.7%

0.4%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

1.4%

1.2%

-2.4%

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-0.8%

-2.8%

-3.8%

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.3%

0.2%

-0.4%

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.0%

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

96K

125K

141K

 

13:30

USD

Unemployment Rate 

8.1%

8.3%

8.3%

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4

34.5

34.4

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

103K

138K

162K

 

15:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate 

0.2%

 

0.3%

 

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