Silver Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 17-21, 2012, Forecast
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Introduction: Silver futures are standardized, exchange-traded contracts in which the contract buyer agrees to take delivery, from the seller, a specific quantity of silver (eg. 30000 grams) at a predetermined price on a future delivery date.
Some Facts about Silver
Silver is a soft, shiny and heavy metallic element with a brilliant white luster. A very ductile and malleable metal, its thermal and electrical conductivity is the highest of all known metals.
Besides being used as a store of value, other main uses of silver include applications in areas such as electronics, photography and as antiseptics.
Consumers and producers of silver can manage silver price risk by purchasing and selling silver futures. Silver producers can employ a short hedge to lock in a selling price for the silver they produce while businesses that require silver can utilize a long hedge to secure a purchase price for the commodity they need.
Silver futures are also traded by speculators who assume the price risk that hedgers try to avoid in return for a chance to profit from favorable silver price movement. Speculators buy silver futures when they believe that silver prices will go up. Conversely, they will sell silver futures when they think that silver prices will fall.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
Silver is trading at 34.65 off the high of the day of 34.98 as industrial metals and precious metals soared most of the week, but more on announcement from the FOMC of a complete and comprehensive program of stimulus. Much more than markets had expected.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Sep 14, 2012 |
34.695 |
34.618 |
34.980 |
34.343 |
0.22% |
|
Sep 13, 2012 |
34.620 |
33.285 |
34.860 |
32.725 |
4.02% |
|
Sep 12, 2012 |
33.283 |
33.563 |
34.138 |
32.523 |
-0.84% |
|
Sep 11, 2012 |
33.565 |
33.500 |
33.863 |
33.398 |
0.19% |
|
Sep 10, 2012 |
33.503 |
33.693 |
34.008 |
33.290 |
-0.56% |
The release of the plans gave a huge bump to precious metals as a hedge against inflation but also lowered the USD making the purchases more attractive to foreign buyers. But also industrial metals bumped up on hopes of increased demand for manufacturing and productions. With the new BMS program introduced, housing and construction should soar which is supportive of the metals pack.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of September 10-14, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 11 |
00:01 |
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-19% |
-22% |
-23% |
|
|
06:30 |
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-7.2B |
-9.0B |
-10.1B |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-42.0B |
-44.0B |
-41.9B |
|
Sep. 12 |
06:30 |
EUR |
French CPI (MoM) |
0.7% |
0.5% |
-0.4% |
|
|
07:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
07:00 |
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
2.1% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
1.5% |
1.6% |
1.8% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
-15.0K |
0.5K |
-13.6K |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.6% |
-0.1% |
-0.6% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.7% |
1.4% |
-0.7% |
|
|
18:00 |
USD |
10-Year Note Auction |
1.764% |
|
1.680% |
|
Sep. 13 |
08:15 |
CHF |
PPI (MoM) |
0.5% |
-0.4% |
-0.3% |
|
|
08:30 |
CHF |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
1.7% |
1.1% |
0.3% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
382K |
370K |
367K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3283K |
3318K |
3332K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
PPI (YoY) |
2.0% |
1.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.5% |
2.6% |
2.5% |
|
|
17:30 |
USD |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
|
19:00 |
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-191.0B |
-155.0B |
-69.6B |
|
Sep. 14 |
10:00 |
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.6% |
2.6% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Employment Change (QoQ) |
0.0% |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.5% |
1.7% |
1.7% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.8% |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
CPI (MoM) |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.9% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
CPI (YoY) |
1.7% |
1.7% |
1.4% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
2.0% |
2.1% |
|
|
14:15 |
USD |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.2% |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
79.2 |
74.0 |
74.3 |
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest: 49.813 on Apr 25, 2011
Average: 28.468 over this period.
Lowest: 14.655 on Feb 05, 2010
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 17 |
13:30 |
USD |
-2.0 |
-5.8 |
|
|
Sep. 18 |
09:30 |
GBP |
2.5% |
2.6% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
-19.0 |
-25.5 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-126.0B |
-137.3B |
|
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
|
9.3B |
|
|
Sep. 19 |
13:30 |
USD |
0.800M |
0.811M |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.765M |
0.746M |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
4.56M |
4.47M |
|
|
Sep. 20 |
07:58 |
EUR |
46.4 |
46.0 |
|
|
|
08:28 |
EUR |
45.3 |
44.7 |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.4% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
2.7% |
2.8% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
-15 |
-21 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 17 09:10 Slovakia
Sep 17 10:00 Norway
Sep 18 08:30 Spain
Sep 18 09:10 Greece
Sep 18 09:30 Belgium
Sep 19 09:10 Sweden
Sep 19 09:30 Germany
Sep 19 09:30 Portugal
Sep 19 10:00 Norway
Sep 20 08:30 Spain
Sep 20 08:50 France
Sep 20 09:30 UK
Sep 20 09:50 France
Sep 20 15:00 US
Sep 20 17:00 US
Sep 21 15:30 Italy
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