USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis August 13, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD added a few pips today, trading at 0.9920 as it has been a bad week for the Looney. Yesterday we saw the Canadian Trade Balance widen beyond expectations and today, employment toppled off a cliff.

Jobs numbers released today showed that unemployment skyrocketed from 7.0% to 7.3% a huge jump in a small country with a loss of 30.4k jobs.

Combine this with a drop in the housing markets; you have a terrible outlook for Canada.

The only hope here is that this will force the Bank of Canada into a rate reduction sooner than later.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Chinese Economic Data August 9 -10, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

 

1.7% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-2.9%

 

-2.5% 

 

-2.1% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.4%

 

20.5% 

 

20.4% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.2%

 

9.8% 

 

9.5% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.1%

 

13.7% 

 

13.7% 

 

 

 

Economic Data for August 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 10

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Monetary Policy Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Trade Balance 

25.10B

 

35.10B 

 

31.70B 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.4%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (MoM) 

1.3%

 

1.5% 

 

-2.9% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (YoY) 

-2.4%

 

-1.5% 

 

-3.0% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

-30.4K

 

9.0K 

 

7.3K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

-0.6%

 

0.1% 

 

-2.4% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.3%

 

7.0% 

 

7.2% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 14

12:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

-0.4%

 

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

0.1%

 

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.5%

 

14:00

USD

Business Inventories m/m

0.3%

Aug 15

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

 

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

7.4

 

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

55.0B

 

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

78.9%

 

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.4%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

Aug 16

12:30

CAD

Foreign Securities Purchases

26.11B

 

12:30

CAD

Manufacturing Sales m/m

-0.4%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

361K

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-12.9

Aug 17

12:30

CAD

Core CPI m/m

-0.4%

 

12:30

CAD

CPI m/m

-0.4%

 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 13  09:10  Italy

Aug 13  09:10  Norway

Aug 13  09:30  Germany

Aug 14  09:10  Greece 

Aug 14  09:10  Italy

Aug 14  09:30  Belgium

Aug 14  14:30  UK

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US

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