USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis August 15, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 0.9919 drifting down 0.0007 in early US trading. There are no eco data or releases scheduled in Canada and oil prices are fairly stable.

The Looney will be responsive to moves in the USD.

Early on Wednesday, the US released several eco reports and all printed above forecast, see chart below, including retail sales which surprised markets and supported the USD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Aug. 14

00:01

 

GBP

 

 

 

RICS House Price Balance 

-24%

 

-23% 

 

-22% 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.3% 

 

0.9% 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

NAB Business Confidence 

4

 

 

 

-3 

 

06:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

06:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.0%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.0% 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.5% 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (YoY) 

0.5%

 

1.0% 

 

1.7% 

 

07:45

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

-0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.1% 

 

08:15

 

CHF

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.3% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.3%

 

2.1% 

 

2.1% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.3% 

 

2.4% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.4% 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-25.5

 

-19.3 

 

-19.6 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.6%

 

-0.7% 

 

0.9% 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-21.2

 

-19.1 

 

-22.3 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.8%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.8% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.8%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.7% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

PPI (YoY) 

0.5%

 

0.5% 

 

0.7% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.5%

 

2.3% 

 

2.6%

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 15

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

 

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

7.4

 

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

55.0B

 

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

78.9%

 

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.4%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

Aug 16

12:30

CAD

Foreign Securities Purchases

26.11B

 

12:30

CAD

Manufacturing Sales m/m

-0.4%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

361K

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-12.9

Aug 17

12:30

CAD

Core CPI m/m

-0.4%

 

12:30

CAD

CPI m/m

-0.4%

 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US

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