USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis August 16, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 15, 2012 15:45 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 0.9904 down a bit in today’s session. The USDCAD has moved beyond where both oil prices and bond yields spreads would suggest. This has been in part due to a drop in overall market volatility as well as CAD positive flows. However with a string of disappointing domestic economic releases and expectations for QE3 declining, the risk is a temporary move higher in USDCAD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Currency

Event

actual

forecast

previous

Aug. 15

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

-2.50%

3.70%

AUD

Wage Price Index (QoQ)

1.0%

0.8%

0.9%

TRY

Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate

8.20%

8.90%

9.00%

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus

1.6%

1.8%

1.5%

GBP

Claimant Count Change

-5.9K

6.0K

1.0K

GBP

MPC Meeting Minutes

USD

Core CPI (MoM)

0.1%

0.2%

USD

CPI (MoM)

0.0%

0.2%

0.0%

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

-5.8

6.5

7.4

USD

CPI (YoY)

1.4%

1.6%

1.7%

USD

Core CPI (YoY)

2.1%

2.2%

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions

9.3B

63.0B

55.9B

USD

Industrial Production (MoM)

0.6%

0.5%

0.1%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Aug 16	12:30	CAD	Foreign Securities Purchases	10.67B	26.11B
	12:30	CAD	Manufacturing Sales m/m	0.4%	-0.4%
	12:30	USD	Building Permits	0.77M	0.76M
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	365K	361K
	12:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.76M	0.76M
	14:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	-4.3	-12.9
Aug 17	12:30	CAD	Core CPI m/m	0.2%	-0.4%
	12:30	CAD	CPI m/m	0.2%	-0.4%
	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	72.5	72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 16 09:30 UK

Aug 16 15:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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