USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis August 16, 2012, Forecast

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By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 0.9904 down a bit in today's session. The USDCAD has moved beyond where both oil prices and bond yields spreads would suggest. This has been in part due to a drop in overall market volatility as well as CAD positive flows. However with a string of disappointing domestic economic releases and expectations for QE3 declining, the risk is a temporary move higher in USDCAD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event 

actual

 

forecast

 

previous

   

Aug. 15

 

AUD

 

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

-2.50%

 

 

 

3.70% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ) 

1.0%

 

0.8% 

 

0.9% 

 

 

 

 

TRY

 

 

 

Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate 

8.20%

 

8.90% 

 

9.00% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.6%

 

1.8% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

-5.9K

 

6.0K 

 

1.0K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-5.8

 

6.5 

 

7.4 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.4%

 

1.6% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

 

2.2% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

9.3B

 

63.0B 

 

55.9B 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Aug 16

12:30

CAD

Foreign Securities Purchases

10.67B

26.11B

 

12:30

CAD

Manufacturing Sales m/m

0.4%

-0.4%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.77M

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

365K

361K

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-4.3

-12.9

Aug 17

12:30

CAD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

-0.4%

 

12:30

CAD

CPI m/m

0.2%

-0.4%

 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.5

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US 

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