USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis August 17, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 16, 2012 17:06 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD declined trading at 0.9876 as the USD lost momentum after a rash of negative eco data ranging from housing starts to unemployment, to manufacturing.

CAD is strong, having gained 0.1% since yesterday’s close. It is noteworthy that as US yields have risen, CAD has rallied. This has been on the back of strengthening US data and falling volatility, which has supported the risk trade and increased expectations for BoC interest rate hikes. The OIS market is now pricing in 28% probability of an interest rate hike in Canada over the next 9‐months

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 16

KRW

South Korean Unemployment Rate

3.1%

3.3%

3.2%

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM)

0.3%

-0.1%

0.8%

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY)

2.8%

1.4%

2.6%

EUR

CPI (YoY)

2.4%

2.4%

EUR

Core CPI (YoY)

1.7%

1.9%

1.6%

USD

Building Permits

0.812M

0.770M

0.760M

CAD

Foreign Securities Purchases

-7.89B

10.67B

26.11B

USD

Housing Starts

0.746M

0.757M

0.754M

CAD

Manufacturing Sales (MoM)

-0.40%

0.40%

-0.40%

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

366K

365K

364K

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3305K

3300K

3336K

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

-7.1

-5.0

-12.9

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Aug 17	12:30	CAD	Core CPI m/m	0.2%	-0.4%
	12:30	CAD	CPI m/m	0.2%	-0.4%
	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	72.5	72.3

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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