USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis August 22, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD dipped to trade in the early part of the US session at 0.9861 Wholesale trade tumbled printing at -0.1% when expectations were for 0.4% although the report will ignored by markets today, but it takes us one step closer toward a GDP add-up for the month of June. At about 6% of monthly GDP on an income basis, wholesale trade holds little by way of a swing factor for GDP expectations and the sales figures we get today don’t necessarily line up with value added GDP concepts. This is the second last piece of the June GDP add-up as we await the final piece in tomorrow’s retail sales report.
For CAD, the ability of central banks to reduce tail risk, thereby pushing vol to extreme lows and supporting risk assets has been an important theme. The other major CAD supportive themes are its Triple A sovereign status, improving US data and a hawkish central bank.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data August 22, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
|
Aug. 21 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
NZD |
|
|
Inflation Expectations (QoQ) |
2.3% |
|
|
|
2.4% |
|
||
|
|
|
HKD |
|
|
Hong Kong CPI (YoY) |
1.60% |
|
3.40% |
|
3.70% |
|
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
-21 |
|
-8 |
|
-6 |
|
||
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Wholesale Sales (MoM) |
-0.1% |
|
0.4% |
|
0.9% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD
|
Date |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
Aug 22 |
8:30am |
CAD |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
8:30am |
CAD |
0.2% |
0.3% |
||
|
10:00am |
USD |
4.52M |
4.37M |
||
|
11:00am |
CAD |
||||
|
2:00pm |
USD |
||||
|
8:30am |
USD |
365K |
366K |
||
|
Aug 23 |
9:00am |
USD |
51.3 |
51.4 |
|
|
10:00am |
USD |
362K |
350K |
||
|
8:30am |
USD |
0.5% |
-1.4% |
||
|
Aug 24 |
8:30am |
USD |
2.8% |
1.3% |
|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
21/8 10:30 Spain
21/8 12:00 EFSF
22/8 11:30 Germany
22/8 11:10 Sweden
23/8 05:45 Japan
23/8 11:30 UK
23/8 19:00 US
27/8 11:30 Germany
28/8 10:30 Spain
28/8 11:00 Italy
28/8 19:00 US
29/8 11:00 Italy
29/8 19:00 US
30/8 05:35 Japan
30/8 11:00 Italy
30/8 19:00 US
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