USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis August 22, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD dipped to trade in the early part of the US session at 0.9861 Wholesale trade tumbled printing at -0.1% when expectations were for 0.4% although the report will ignored by markets today, but it takes us one step closer toward a GDP add-up for the month of June.  At about 6% of monthly GDP on an income basis, wholesale trade holds little by way of a swing factor for GDP expectations and the sales figures we get today don’t necessarily line up with value added GDP concepts.  This is the second last piece of the June GDP add-up as we await the final piece in tomorrow’s retail sales report.

For CAD, the ability of central banks to reduce tail risk, thereby pushing vol to extreme lows and supporting risk assets has been an important theme. The other major CAD supportive themes are its Triple A sovereign status, improving US data and a hawkish central bank.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 22, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 21

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.3%

 

 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

HKD

 

 

 

Hong Kong CPI (YoY) 

1.60%

 

3.40% 

 

3.70% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-21

 

-8 

 

-6 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

0.4% 

 

0.9% 

   

  

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

 

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Aug 22

8:30am

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

0.4%

0.5%

 

8:30am

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

0.2%

0.3%

 

10:00am

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.52M

4.37M

 

11:00am

CAD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

   
 

2:00pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

   
 

8:30am

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

365K

366K

Aug 23

9:00am

USD

New Home Sales

51.3

51.4

 

10:00am

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

362K

350K

 

8:30am

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.5%

-1.4%

Aug 24

8:30am

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

2.8%

1.3%

           

 

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

21/8  10:30  Spain

21/8  12:00  EFSF 

22/8  11:30  Germany 

22/8  11:10  Sweden 

23/8  05:45  Japan 

23/8  11:30  UK 

23/8  19:00  US 

27/8  11:30  Germany 

28/8  10:30  Spain

28/8  11:00  Italy 

28/8  19:00  US 

29/8  11:00  Italy 

29/8  19:00  US 

30/8  05:35  Japan

30/8  11:00  Italy 

30/8  19:00  US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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