USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis August 24, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD is moving close to parity trading at 0.9919. CAD is trading at the mid-point of yesterday’s range and flat to the close with a slew of conflicting developments for the currency. Yesterday, Gove nor Carney maintained his hawkish tone, even after a slew of disappointing domestic releases, leaving the BoC as the most hawkish DM central bank. The OIS market is pricing in a 16% probability of an interest rate hike in Canada over the next 9-months down just slightly from the beginning of the week. A weak HSBC PMI from China has weighed on commodity currencies; offsetting this for CAD is oil prices rallying to a 3.5month high. Finally the FOMC minutes were dovish signally QE3 at their next meeting, which saw the US collapse.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data August 23, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Aug. 23 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
47.80 |
|
|
49.30 |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German GDP (QoQ) |
0.3% |
|
0.3% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German GDP (YoY) |
0.5% |
|
0.5% |
|
0.5% |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French Manufacturing PMI |
46.2 |
|
43.6 |
|
43.4 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Manufacturing PMI |
45.1 |
|
43.4 |
|
43.0 |
|
|
|
|
SEK |
|
|
Swedish Unemployment Rate |
7.00% |
|
7.20% |
|
8.80% |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Manufacturing PMI |
45.3 |
|
44.2 |
|
44.0 |
|
|
|
|
NOK |
|
|
Norwegian GDP (QoQ) |
1.2% |
|
1.0% |
|
1.5% |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
28.4K |
|
28.2K |
|
25.9K |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
CBI Distributive Trades Survey |
-3 |
|
15 |
|
11 |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
372K |
|
365K |
|
368K |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3317K |
|
3300K |
|
3313K |
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
New Home Sales |
|
365K |
|
350K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and North American markets
|
Aug. 24 |
08:00 |
|
HUF |
|
|
Hungarian Retail Sales (YoY) |
|
|
-2.40% |
|
-2.50% |
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
Business Investment (QoQ) |
|
|
2.8% |
|
1.9% |
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
|
|
-0.5% |
|
-0.7% |
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (YoY) |
|
|
-0.6% |
|
-0.8% |
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
|
|
0.5% |
|
-1.4% |
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
|
|
2.4% |
|
1.3% |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
23/8 05:45 Japan
23/8 11:30 UK
23/8 19:00 US
27/8 11:30 Germany
28/8 10:30 Spain
28/8 11:00 Italy
28/8 19:00 US
29/8 11:00 Italy
29/8 19:00 US
30/8 05:35 Japan
30/8 11:00 Italy
30/8 19:00 US
Friendly Durable Goods Report Reverses EUR/USD to Down
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EUR/USD Mid-Session Analysis for May 24, 2013
USD/JPY Forecast May 24, 2013, Technical Analysis
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