USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis August 27, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD is trading at 0.9931 inching closer and closer to parity. CAD is flat to yesterday’s close but has weakened over 1.0% since its August 21st overshooting high. There is no Canadian data today leaving CAD vulnerable to broader market moves. The OIS market is pricing in a 16% probability of an interest rate hike in Canada over the next 9-months, relatively stable to yesterday and supportive of CAD. Next week the focus will be Canadian GDP, expected to be up 0.1%m/m in June and Chair Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech. The rise in crude prices should help the Looney and the Canadian economy.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data August 24, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
Importance |
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Aug. 24 |
00:30 |
|
AUD |
|
|
RBA Governor Stevens Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
Business Investment (QoQ) |
-1.5% |
|
2.8% |
|
1.9% |
|
||
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.5% |
|
-0.5% |
|
-0.7% |
|
||
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (YoY) |
-0.5% |
|
-0.6% |
|
-0.8% |
|
||
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-0.4% |
|
0.5% |
|
-2.2% |
|||
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
4.2% |
|
2.4% |
|
1.6% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Aug. 28 |
15:00 |
USD |
65.9 |
|
|
Aug. 30 |
13:30 |
CAD |
-10.3B |
|
|
Aug. 31 |
13:30 |
CAD |
0.1% |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
27/8 11:30 Germany
28/8 10:30 Spain
28/8 11:00 Italy
28/8 19:00 US
29/8 11:00 Italy
29/8 19:00 US
30/8 05:35 Japan
30/8 11:00 Italy
30/8 19:00 US
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