USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis August 27, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 0.9931 inching closer and closer to parity. CAD is flat to yesterday’s close but has weakened over 1.0% since its August 21st overshooting high. There is no Canadian data today leaving CAD vulnerable to broader market moves. The OIS market is pricing in a 16% probability of an interest rate hike in Canada over the next 9-months, relatively stable to yesterday and supportive of CAD. Next week the focus will be Canadian GDP, expected to be up 0.1%m/m in June and Chair Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech. The rise in crude prices should help the Looney and the Canadian economy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 24, 2012 actual v. forecast 

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 24

00:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

-1.5%

 

2.8% 

 

1.9% 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.5%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.7% 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.6% 

 

-0.8% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

-2.2% 

  

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

4.2%

 

2.4% 

 

1.6% 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Previous

Aug. 28 

15:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence  

65.9 

Aug. 30 

13:30

CAD

Current Account 

-10.3B 

Aug. 31

13:30

CAD

GDP (MoM) 

0.1% 

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

27/8  11:30  Germany 

28/8  10:30  Spain

28/8  11:00  Italy 

28/8  19:00  US 

29/8  11:00  Italy 

29/8  19:00  US 

30/8  05:35  Japan

30/8  11:00  Italy 

30/8  19:00  US

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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