USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis August 3, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 02, 2012 13:42 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.0054, with little support for the CAD and a negative outlook on the US economy from the Fed, yesterday there is little to support the CAD. With the lack of stimulus, the USD will add strength and we will see the pair continue to edge up. In the US today the number of people who filed applications for unemployment benefits rose by 8,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 365,000, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had projected claims would rise to 370,000 from last week’s upwardly revised level of 357,000. A more stable barometer of labor-market trends, the four-week claims average, dropped 2,750 to 365,500, the lowest level since late March. The four-week average reduces seasonal volatility in the weekly data. Meanwhile, continuing claims decreased by 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.27 million in the week ended July 21. About 5.96 million people received some kind of state or federal benefit in the week ended July 14, down 69,672 from the prior week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Economic Data August 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 02

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM)

1.0%

0.7%

0.8%

AUD

Trade Balance

0.01B

-0.35B

-0.31B

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change

-27.80K

-98.90K

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY)

3.7%

2.0%

6.2%

CHF

SVME PMI

48.6

47.0

48.1

NOK

Norwegian Unemployment Rate

3.00%

3.00%

EUR

Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction

6.647%

6.430%

GBP

Interest Rate Decision

0.50%

0.50%

GBP

BOE QE Total

375B

375B

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Aug 3	12:30	USD	Non-Farm Employment Change		80K
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Rate		8.2%
	12:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings m/m		0.3%
	14:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI		52.1

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 06 09:10 Norway

Aug 07 00:30 Japan

Aug 07 09:15 Austria

Aug 07 14:30 UK

Aug 07 17:00 US

Aug 08 09:30 Germany

Aug 08 10:00 Norway

Aug 08 15:30 Italy

Aug 08 17:00 US

Aug 09 15:30 Italy

Aug 09 17:00 US

Aug 10 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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