USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis July 16, 2012, Forecast

Posted July 13, 2012 13:52 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.0168 in the early part of the US session. Domestic data has been relatively strong and risk aversion, as measured by either the VIX or currency volatility, remains low, typically positive for CAD. In addition, the outlook for the US, somewhat compromised by a weak ISM and employment report but on a relative basis still brighter than many has helped not just CAD.

The CAD is facing a barrage of eco data beginning on Monday the 16th. Markets will be watching to see if there are any developments to support the CAD.

There are several near-term risks to a strong CAD – however in the imminent future we are concerned that CAD might have gotten ahead of itself. This Tuesday (July 17th), the BoC is expected to leave interest rates on hold at 1.0%; however the tone of the statement will prove particularly important. Developments since June 5th (the last meeting) include: tighter mortgage and housing rules in Canada, a 2% rally in CAD, an escalation in the European crisis and a dovish tone from most central banks. In this environment, we would expect the hawkish BoC tone to soften, which risks weighing temporarily on CAD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

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Jul. 13