USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis July 23, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.0115 as a stronger US gains momentum as the CAD is flat from yesterday’s close and up 0.7% over the past five sessions, ending a week in which the BoC has reaffirmed its bias toward tightening (albeit over the medium term).  CAD is trading at its highest level in roughly two months and continues to retrace the losses that occurred over the month of May.  The BoC is currently one of the most hawkish central banks as many of its peers are either on hold or in the midst of easing, a fact that has yet to  be reflected among market participants, specifically with OIS markets  indicating expectations of easing over the next 9 months.  Commodities are weaker ahead of the NA session, while equity futures are mixed, providing little for CAD in terms of bullish movement ahead of the data.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 20

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Import Price Index (QoQ) 

2.4%

 

1.5% 

 

-1.2% 

 

 

 

04:00

 

NZD

 

 

 

Credit Card Spending (YoY) 

4.6%

 

 

 

3.9% 

 

 

 

06:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

Estonian PPI (MoM) 

0.00%

 

 

 

0.00% 

 

 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German PPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German PPI (YoY) 

1.6%

 

1.8% 

 

2.1% 

 

 

 

08:00

 

DKK

 

 

 

Danish Retail Sales (YoY) 

-1.2%

 

 

 

-0.5% 

  

 

08:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

Dutch Consumer Spending 

-1.90

 

 

 

-2.10 

  

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Public Sector Net Borrowing 

12.1B

 

11.0B 

 

16.1B 

  

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

 

2.0% 

 

1.2% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 24

12:30

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

-0.3%

12:30

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.5%

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

52.5

Jul 25

14:00

USD

New Home Sales

369K

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Jul 26

12:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.7%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

5.9%

Jul 27

12:30

USD

Advance GDP q/q

1.9%

13:55

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.0

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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