USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis July 27, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD fell slightly to trade at 1.0079 as the USD weakened. CAD is up 0.6% to yesterday’s close. Considering the macro environment, USDCAD has traded in a relatively tight 647 point (0.9800 to 1.0447) range in 2012. Risk reversals are trending lower and have shifted faster than USDCAD, suggesting that spot has yet to react to the option’s market declining interest in protecting against USD upside. Meanwhile, interest rate spreads are also trending lower and acting as somewhat of a weight against USDCAD. Finally, USDCAD has been tied relatively tightly to oil prices. While risk aversion jumped higher last Friday, it has failed to move up to the May/June highs and today’s comment by ECB President Draghi have increased risk appetite; opening the door to USDCAD downside
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data July 26, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
|
Jul. 26 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean GDP (QoQ) |
0.4% |
|
0.5% |
|
0.9% |
|
||
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.9 |
|
5.8 |
|
5.8 |
|
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-1.1% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.8% |
|||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
1.6% |
|
0.4% |
|
1.6% |
|||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
353K |
|
380K |
|
388K |
|||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3287K |
|
3310K |
|
3317K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jul 27 |
12:30 |
USD |
1.9% |
|
|
13:55 |
USD |
72.0 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jul 27 09:10 Italy
Jul 27 17:00 US
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