USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis July 31, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 1.0040 as the USD began to build some strength and the DX climbed in early trading today.

With little support for the CAD, the pair followed cues from the global markets. Aside from tomorrow’s GDP release, there will be no domestic data this week, leaving the CAD vulnerable to international events, data, and headline risk. 

USDCAD is likely to benefit from additional central bank easing this week, as risk assets are supported;

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for July 30, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 30

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

1.5% 

 

-3.4% 

 

 

 

02:00

 

AUD

 

 

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

2.8%

 

 

 

0.7% 

 

 

 

10:20

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

5.96%

 

 

 

5.82% 

 

 

 

11:00

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

11

 

15 

 

42 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Jul 31

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

 

0.1%

 

12:30

USD

Employment Cost Index q/q

 

0.4%

 

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

 

0.0%

 

13:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

 

-1.9%

 

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

 

52.9

 

14:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

 

62.0

Aug 1

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

 

176K

 

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

49.7

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

2.7M

 

18:15

USD

FOMC Statement

   
 

18:15

USD

Federal Funds Rate

   

Aug 2

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

353K

 

14:00

USD

Factory Orders m/m

 

0.7%

Aug 3

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

 

80K

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

 

8.2%

 

12:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

 

0.3%

 

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

52.1

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 31

12:30

CAD

GDP m/m

0.3%

 

12:30

CAD

RMPI m/m

-1.0%

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 31  00:30  Japan

Jul 31  09:30  Belgium

Aug 01  09:30  Germany

Aug 01  10:00  Norway

Aug 01  13:00  US

Aug 02  08:30  Spain 

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