USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – November 25, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD gained another 5 points to trade at 1.3370 as the Loonie got no support from a slight climb in oil and gold prices today. China stocks were sluggish on Tuesday morning as metal producers fell on lower commodity prices, weighing on a market already under pressure from a fresh batch of initial public offerings.

Hong Kong shares were also weak; tracking falls in global markets amid renewed concerns over world economic growth.

The sector’s bearish sentiment has spread to other sections of the market, which already faces pressure of a correction after bouncing more than 20 percent from an August low hit during the summer market rout. Worries from China remained a major market focus weighing heavily on commodity related currencies such as the Loonie.

The U.S. dollar has retraced some ground to break back below $1.34 Canadian in early morning trading. On top of this downward pressure, investors are observing general greenback strength heading into the week of U.S. Thanksgiving.

A key driver was FOMC Member John Williams’ expressing belief there is a strong case for a rate hike in December if data continues to hold up. The U.S. data for the week will be compressed into the first three days with Preliminary gross domestic product and consumer confidence on Tuesday followed by durable goods on Wednesday. Canadian data is very light, leaving us susceptible to the downward pressure in commodities and the larger currency flows.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 25, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 11:00 Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 19:00 US 13bn 5-year note

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Sek 4bn 1% Nov 2026 bond

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 17:30 US Usd 35bn 2-year FRN

Nov 25 19:00 US Usd 29bn 7-year note

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs

Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction