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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – November 26, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Nov 25, 2015, 12:05 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD added 19 points as the greenback rallied and gold and oil declined weighing on the Loonie which is trading at

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – November 26, 2015 – Forecast

usdcad wednesday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD added 19 points as the greenback rallied and gold and oil declined weighing on the Loonie which is trading at 1.3324. The moment may finally be approaching: when the Federal Reserve begins the next stage of its policy normalization process and raises interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. Without mincing words, the process of the December rate hike being priced into markets has been nothing but the most significant tailwind for the US Dollar in recent weeks.

The greenback has rallied against its major peers on the chances of a small increase in borrowing costs in December, a prospect boosted by comments from Fed officials including its chief Janet Yellen.

The Canadian dollar continued to fall versus the U.S. dollar. The USD was off to a roaring start to the trading day as the USD/CAD broke through the 1.33.20 price level and climbed as high as 1.3350 before the CAD got as markets eased. 

Investors are confident that the U.S. Federal Reserve will finally raise rates for the first time in a decade at the end of the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The expectations of an interest rate divergence have boosted the USD ever since the tapering of American easing was announced. The October FOMC statement sparked the possibility that the central bank policy makers would follow through after the disappointments in June and September. A strong NFP and encouraging comments from Fed members followed. The path to the first rate hike seems clear and only next week’s non-farm payrolls report could potentially derail, but probability is low.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

2.600M

-0.200M

-0.482M

 

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q3)

-3.6%

-2.1%

2.1%

   

  GBP

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals

 45.4

45.5K

44.5K

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Assist Gov. Debelle Speaks 

 

 

 

   

 

usdcaD

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 26, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United States – Thanksgiving Day

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM) (Oct)

 

-937M

-1,222M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct)

 

-3,370M

-3,200M

 

 

  AUD

 

Private New Capital Expenditure

 

-3.0%

-4.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

GfK German Consumer Climate (Dec)

 

9.2

9.4

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Sek 4bn 1% Nov 2026 bond

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 17:30 US Usd 35bn 2-year FRN

Nov 25 19:00 US Usd 29bn 7-year note

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs

Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

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