USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 12, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD dipped a bit today after US trade balance showed a widening gap more than expected while the Canadian trade balance reported above forecast surprising markets. Gains for the Looney were limited by the positive data in the labor market in the US. The pair is trading fairly flat at 0.9783.

Canada’s trade deficit closed the gap by more than expectations today; reports showed the gap closed to 1.3B when markets had expected a deficit of 2.08.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 11, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 11

 

JPY

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Employment Change 

14.5K

3.8K 

-9.1K 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.4%

5.3% 

5.1% 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

2.75%

2.75% 

3.00% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.0% 

0.4% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0% 

2.1% 

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-18.1B

 

-15.6B 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

0.1% 

0.7% 

 

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian CPI (YoY) 

6.6%

6.4% 

6.0% 

 

 

SEK

 

 

Swedish CPI (YoY) 

0.4%

0.7% 

0.7% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

ECB Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7% 

1.1% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-1.3B

-2.0B 

-2.5B 

 

 

USD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-44.2B

-44.0B 

-42.5B 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

339K

370K 

369K 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3273K

3275K 

3288K 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 12 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.2% 

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

0.8% 

1.7% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

77.9 

78.3 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 12 09:30 Germany 

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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