USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 15, 2012 20:29 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading in early morning at 0.9784 dropping a few pips. The Loonie is stronger, up 0.2% outperforming most of the majors. Drivers are mixed, given that oil prices remain unchanged as equity futures point to a positive open. The CAD strength may be the result of a delayed reaction to comments from late Friday afternoon, where Russia’s ambassador to Canada indicated that CAD would continue to form a key component of Russia’s FX reserves. Recent USDCAD congestion has remained near 0.9800, at the lower end of the range for October. Market expectations for BoC policy remain steady, pricing in a 20% probability of a rate hike in the next 12 months.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 15	GBP	Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)	3.5%		-0.6%
	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)	1.8%	1.4%	-0.7%
	CNY	Chinese CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%	2.0%
	CNY	Chinese PPI (YoY)	-3.6%	-3.6%	-3.5%
	CNY	Chinese CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.4%	0.6%
	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.6%	-1.3%	-1.3%
	TRY	Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate	8.40%	8.20%	8.00%
	CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%
	PLN	Polish CPI (YoY)	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.6%	1.0%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.8%	1.2%
	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-6.2	-4.5	-10.4

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 16	13:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.6%
	13:30	CAD	Foreign Securities Purchases		6.67B
	13:30	CAD	Manufacturing Sales (MoM)		-1.50%
	13:30	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.7%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	2.0%	1.9%
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		67.0B
	14:15	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-1.2%
Oct. 18	13:30	CAD	Wholesale Sales (MoM)		-0.6%
Oct. 19	13:30	CAD	Core CPI (MoM)		0.3%
	13:30	CAD	CPI (MoM)		0.2%
	13:30	CAD	CPI (YoY)		1.2%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 16 08:30 Spain

Oct 16 09:10 Greece

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden

Oct 17 09:30 Germany

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal

Oct 17 10:00 Norway

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 08:30 Spain

Oct 18 08:50 France

Oct 18 09:30 UK

Oct 18 09:50 France

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 15:00 US

Oct 18 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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