USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading in early morning at 0.9784 dropping a few pips. The Loonie is stronger, up 0.2% outperforming most of the majors.  Drivers are mixed, given that oil prices remain unchanged as equity futures point to a positive open.  The CAD strength may be the result of a delayed reaction to comments from late Friday afternoon, where Russia’s ambassador to Canada indicated that CAD would continue to form a key component of Russia’s FX reserves. Recent USDCAD congestion has remained near 0.9800, at the lower end of the range for October.  Market expectations for BoC policy remain steady, pricing in a 20% probability of a rate hike in the next 12 months.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 15

 

GBP

 

 

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 

3.5%

 

 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

1.8%

 

1.4% 

 

-0.7% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

1.9% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-3.6%

 

-3.6% 

 

-3.5% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.6%

 

-1.3% 

 

-1.3% 

 

 

TRY

 

 

Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate 

8.40%

 

8.20% 

 

8.00% 

 

 

CHF

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish CPI (YoY) 

3.8%

 

3.9% 

 

3.8% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.1%

 

0.6% 

 

1.0% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.1%

 

0.8% 

 

1.2% 

 

 

USD

 

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-6.2

 

-4.5 

 

-10.4 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 16 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.6%

 

13:30

CAD

Foreign Securities Purchases 

 

6.67B

 

13:30

CAD

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

 

-1.50%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

1.7%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

1.9%

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

67.0B

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2%

-1.2%

 Oct. 18

13:30

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

 

-0.6%

Oct. 19

13:30

CAD

Core CPI (MoM) 

 

0.3%

 

13:30

CAD

CPI (MoM) 

 

0.2%

 

13:30

CAD

CPI (YoY) 

 

1.2%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 16 08:30 Spain 

Oct 16 09:10 Greece 

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain 

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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