USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 0.9857 up 0.0049 in early trading. The Canadian dollar weakened the most in almost three months against its U.S. peer after Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney suggested he may reduce his economic outlook and delay raising policy interest rates.

The loonie fell against almost all of its most-traded peers after Carney’s comments yesterday that his quarterly economic forecast next week will reflect a prolonged global recovery. Dalton McGuinty said yesterday he is stepping down as Ontario premier amid controversy over canceled power plants and an inability to implement budget cuts.

Oil, the country’s largest export, was little changed at $91.93 a barrel. The Standard & Poor’s Index climbed 0.7 percent, the most in a week. The S&P GSCI Index of 24 raw materials gained 0.2 percent.

Canadian factory sales rose three times faster than economists forecast in August on gains in energy and automobiles. Sales climbed 1.5 percent to C$49.5 billion ($50.2 billion), Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The percentage gain exceeded all forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey of 22 economists.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 16

01:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

 

2.1%

 

2.1% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.2%

 

2.5% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.1%

 

1.9% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (YoY) 

-1.2%

 

-0.8%

 

1.1% 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.7%

 

2.7% 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-11.5

 

-15.0

 

-18.2 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-1.4

 

-1.1

 

-3.8 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

 

1.6%

 

1.5% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.5%

 

0.6% 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

6.90B

 

8.72B

 

6.67B 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

1.50%

 

1.00%

 

-0.80% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

1.9%

 

1.7% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

2.0%

 

1.9% 

 

14:00

 

USD

 

 

 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

90.0B

 

45.3B

 

67.2B 

 

14:15

 

USD

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.2% 

 

-1.4% 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 18

13:30

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

 

-0.6%

Oct. 19

13:30

CAD

Core CPI (MoM) 

 

0.3%

 

13:30

CAD

CPI (MoM) 

 

0.2%

 

13:30

CAD

CPI (YoY) 

 

1.2%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain           

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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