USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis October 5, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 04, 2012 17:21 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 0.9817 gaining 0.2% since yesterday’s close, but is trading within yesterday’s range. Today the volatile Ivey PMI reported above forecast a positive for the CAD. The more significant driver for CAD is likely to be Friday’s nonfarm payrolls and Canadian unemployment.

For medium-term CAD traders, the debate really centers on whether a deceleration in global growth will outweigh the CAD positives associated with relative BoC and Fed policy. We would argue that over the next 6-months it is central bank policy that matters.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 4, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 04	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	6.4%	4.7%	-21.2%
	AUD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.2%	0.4%	-0.8%
	GBP	Halifax House Price Index (MoM)	-0.4%	0.2%	-0.4%
	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B	375B
	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	367K	370K	363K
	EUR	ECB Press Conference
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3281K	3271K	3281K
	CAD	Ivey PMI	60.4	59.0	62.5

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 05	13:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.2%	0.0%
	13:30	CAD	Building Permits (MoM)	-1.0%	-2.3%
	13:30	CAD	Employment Change	10.0K	34.3K
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	110K	96K
	13:30	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.4	34.4
	13:30	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	125K	103K

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 05 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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