USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis September 21, 2012, Forecast
Add a comment
Fundamental Reports
To learn more click here
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD soared today to trade at 0.9786 adding 0.0041 pips. The USD gained momentum on positive housing data and jobless claims along with a surprising Philly Fed Index, which was expected to show a large drop after the negative data reported in the Empire Index earlier this week.
CAD is weak, having lost 0.4% since yesterday’s close. The weakness was spurred by the release of a disappointing and contractionary HSBC Chinese PMI and aggravated by falling oil prices, which have dropped 9.7% over the last week. Last week the CFTC reported that net long CAD positions had jumped over $10bn, a record high. The positioning suggests that the market is bullish CAD; however should sentiment turn against CAD the risk is that there is accelerated selling as traders move to unwind long exposure. An environment of slowing global growth and weak oil prices is typically not a supportive environment for CAD.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data September 20, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 20 |
|
JPY |
|
|
Trade Balance |
-0.47T |
|
-0.37T |
|
-0.37T |
||
|
|
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
47.80 |
|
|
|
47.60 |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French Manufacturing PMI |
42.6 |
|
46.4 |
|
46.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Manufacturing PMI |
47.3 |
|
45.3 |
|
44.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Manufacturing PMI |
46.0 |
|
45.4 |
|
45.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.2% |
|
-0.4% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Retail Sales (YoY) |
2.7% |
|
2.7% |
|
2.3% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
-8 |
|
-15 |
|
-21 |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
382K |
|
375K |
|
385K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3272K |
|
3300K |
|
3304K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
-1.9 |
|
-4.0 |
|
-7.1 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CAD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 21 |
13:30 |
CAD |
|
-0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
CAD |
|
-0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
CAD |
1.0% |
1.3% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 21 15:30 Italy
Friendly Durable Goods Report Reverses EUR/USD to Down
EUR/JPY Forecast May 27, 2013, Technical Analysis
EUR/USD Mid-Session Analysis for May 24, 2013
AUD/USD Forecast May 27, 2013, Technical Analysis
Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com
View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles
