USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis September 24, 2012 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD dipped as the CAD gathered momentum on some positive eco data. The pair are trading early on Friday at 0.9748
In Canada, the Consumer Price Index (MoM and YoY) grew at a rate of only +0.2% in August (against a consensus of +0.3%) and +1.2% in August (relative to expectations of +1.3%). In addition, Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index core (MoM) has climbed +0.3% in August, against a projected figure of +0.3%. Finally, the Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index core (YoY) has yielded an advance of +1.6%, against consensus expectations of only +1.5%.
The fact that inflation is seriously undershooting the BoC’s 2% inflation target and sits toward the lower band in the 1-3% target range should be providing relief to an inflation-targeting central bank. That’s especially upon consideration of the half point measurement bias in Canadian CPI that has truer inflation riding beneath 1% y/y. If the BoC does not shift its bias next month, then it must more clearly spell out the criteria for doing so. The standard criteria to be judged within the context of the BoC’s communicated reaction function appear to be toppling off the list one at a time. Need soft and disappointing growth? Check, particularly given risks that Q3 growth comes in flat given what we know at a very preliminary stage.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data September 21, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 21 |
|
AUD |
|
|
CB Leading Index (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
|
|
0.5% |
||
|
|
|
NZD |
|
|
Credit Card Spending (YoY) |
1.0% |
|
|
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Dutch Consumer Spending |
-1.50 |
|
|
|
-0.50 |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
12.4B |
|
13.3B |
|
-1.9B |
||
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
0.3% |
|
-0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
0.4% |
|
-0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Wholesale Sales (MoM) |
-0.6% |
|
-0.1% |
|
-0.3% |
||
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
1.2% |
|
1.0% |
|
1.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Belgium NBB Business Climate |
-11.6 |
|
-11.2 |
|
-11.8 |
|
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the EUR ( there are no USD or CAD events )
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 24 |
09:00 |
EUR |
102.1 |
102.3 |
|
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
|
111.2 |
|
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
|
94.2 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 24 09:10 Norway
Sep 24 09:30 Germany
Sep 24 10:00 Belgium
Sep 24 15:30 Italy
Sep 25 08:30 Holland
Sep 25 08:30 Spain
Sep 25 09:10 Italy
Sep 25 14:30 UK
Sep 25 17:00 US
Sep 26 09:10 Italy
Sep 26 09:10 Sweden
Sep 26 09:00 Germany
Sep 26 14:30 Sweden
Sep 26 17:00 US
Sep 27 00:30 Japan
Sep 27 09:10 Italy
Sep 27 17:00 US
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