USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis September 3, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD dropped this morning after the release of Canadian GDP data, which showed a positive increase in growth, which contradicts the eco data released over the past few weeks.
The greenback vs. the Looney has been one of today’s worst performing pairs, crashing over 35 pips in the aftermath of a solid data release in Canada Friday. The pair is currently establishing session lows in the region of 0.9869, which constitutes a loss of -0.57% on the day.
In Canada, Gross Domestic Product (MoM) rose +0.2% in Q2, beating consensus expectations of only +0.1%. In addition, Gross Domestic product (YoY) climbed +2.4% in Q2, which also exceeded its estimates of only +2.2%. Finally, Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) reported a growth of +1.8% in Q2, besting its projections of +1.6%.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data August 31, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Aug. 31 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) |
0.3% |
|
0.5% |
|
1.4% |
||
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
4.3% |
|
4.3% |
|
4.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) |
-0.5% |
|
-0.6% |
|
-0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.2% |
|
1.7% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
INR |
|
|
Indian GDP (YoY) |
5.5% |
|
5.3% |
|
5.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
1.3% |
|
0.1% |
|
-0.8% |
||
|
|
|
NOK |
|
|
Norwegian Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.20% |
|
0.50% |
|
-1.40% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
|
2.5% |
|
2.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
11.3% |
|
11.3% |
|
11.3% |
||
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
GDP (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Chicago PMI |
53.0 |
|
53.5 |
|
53.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
74.3 |
|
73.6 |
|
73.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and US ( no CAD events)
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
|
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep 03 |
08:15 |
|
CHF |
|
|
|
|
3.7% |
|
||
|
|
08:30 |
|
CHF |
|
|
|
|
48.6 |
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 03 09:10 Norway Bond auction
Sep 03 10:00 Belgium OLO auction
Sep 04 00:30 Japan Auctions 10Y JGBs
Sep 04 09:15 Austria Bond auction
Sep 04 09:30 Belgium Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills
Sep 04 14:30 UK Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep
Sep 05 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Sep 05 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction
Sep 05 09:30 UK 4.5% 2042 Gilt auction
Sep 06 00:30 Japan Auctions 30Y JGBs
Sep 06 08:30 Spain Bono auction
Sep 06 08:50 France OAT auction
Sep 06 09:10 Sweden I/L bond auction
Sep 06 15:00 US Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &
Sep 07 15:30 Italy
EUR/USD Mid-Session Analysis for June 18, 2013
US Dollar Index (DX) Futures Analysis – June 18, 2013
Weak U.K. Inflation Data Fuels British Pound Sell-off
EUR/USD Forecast June 18, 2013, Technical Analysis
Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com
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