USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis September 7, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD is trading at 0.9824 off by 0.83% as the USD continues to weaken as hopes for stimulus grow. The CAD’s weakness yesterday was a bit of a mystery and likely the result of flows. The BoC statement was a medium term positive for CAD. The BoC maintained its hawkish stance and left itself as the most hawkish of all the DM central banks. This combined with Canada’s triple A rating, large oil reserves and bullish investor sentiment should continue to favor CAD into yearend. The biggest near‐term risk for CAD is tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll and the FOMC meeting on September 13th
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data September 6, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 06 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean GDP (QoQ) |
0.3% |
|
0.4% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Employment Change |
-8.8K |
|
5.0K |
|
11.7K |
||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
5.1% |
|
5.3% |
|
5.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Halifax House Price Index (MoM) |
-0.4% |
|
0.3% |
|
-0.7% |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
|
-0.2% |
|
-0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Factory Orders (MoM) |
0.5% |
|
0.2% |
|
-1.6% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
|
0.50% |
|
0.50% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
BOE QE Total |
375B |
|
375B |
|
375B |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
0.75% |
|
0.75% |
|
0.75% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
201K |
|
140K |
|
173K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
365K |
|
370K |
|
377K |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
ECB Press Conference |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3322K |
|
3315K |
|
3328K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
53.7 |
|
52.5 |
|
52.6 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 07 |
00:01 |
GBP |
-24% |
-24% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.5% |
-2.5% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
2.0% |
-2.9% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.7% |
1.3% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.2% |
-2.4% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-2.8% |
-4.3% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
0.2% |
-0.9% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
124K |
163K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
142K |
172K |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 07 15:30 Italy
Sep 10 09:30 Germany
Sep 10 15:30 Italy
Sep 11 00:30 Japan
Sep 11 08:30 Holland
Sep 11 09:10 Greece
Sep 11 09:30 UK
Sep 11 14:30 UK
Sep 11 17:00 US
Sep 12 09:10 Italy
Sep 12 09:10 Sweden
Sep 12 09:30 Germany
Sep 12 09:30 Swiss
Sep 12 14:30 Sweden
Sep 12 17:00 US
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