USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis September 7, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading at 0.9824 off by 0.83% as the USD continues to weaken as hopes for stimulus grow. The CAD’s weakness yesterday was a bit of a mystery and likely the result of flows. The BoC statement was a medium term positive for CAD. The BoC maintained its hawkish stance and left itself as the most hawkish of all the DM central banks. This combined with Canada’s triple A rating, large oil reserves and bullish investor sentiment should continue to favor CAD into yearend. The biggest near‐term risk for CAD is tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll and the FOMC meeting on September 13th

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 06

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Employment Change 

-8.8K

 

5.0K 

 

11.7K 

  

 

 

AUD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.1%

 

5.3% 

 

5.2% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.7% 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.2% 

 

-1.6% 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

 

0.50% 

 

0.50% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

BOE QE Total 

375B

 

375B 

 

375B 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75%

 

0.75% 

 

0.75% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

201K

 

140K 

 

173K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

365K

 

370K 

 

377K 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

ECB Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3322K

 

3315K 

 

3328K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

53.7

 

52.5 

 

52.6 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 07

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-24% 

-24% 

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.5% 

-2.5% 

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

2.0% 

-2.9% 

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

1.7% 

1.3% 

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

1.2% 

-2.4% 

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.8% 

-4.3% 

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2% 

-0.9% 

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

124K 

163K 

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5 

34.5 

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

142K 

172K 

Government Bond Auction

 Date    Time   Country 

Sep 07 15:30 Italy

Sep 10 09:30 Germany 

Sep 10 15:30 Italy  

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30   Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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