USD/CAD Fundamental Forecast – April 29, 2016

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Published: Apr 28, 2016, 08:52 UTC

The USD/CAD dipped 59 points as oil prices supported the Loonie and the Fed statement sent the dollar spiraling down. The FOMC made no changes to its

USD/CAD Fundamental Forecast – April 29, 2016

The USD/CAD dipped 59 points as oil prices supported the Loonie and the Fed statement sent the dollar spiraling down. The FOMC made no changes to its outlook leaving markets uncertain. The paid is trading at 1.2540. As broadly expected the Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged at between 0.25% and 0.50%. Since there was no press conference, the market had nothing to get its teeth into apart from the statement. The latter was little changed compared to the one from January, indicating that the Fed sticks to its dovish position. The line saying that “the global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks” was removed but on the other hand the Fed agreed that the domestic economic activity appeared to have slowed. All in all, it was roughly in line with the market was expecting and USD crosses remained flat as investors had already priced in that the Fed would most likely hold fire in June.

The Loonie continues to hold steady against the other major global tenders thanks to the continuation of oil prices at range-topping levels. The price of a barrel of Brent Crude edged upwards to close to the $47 level early yesterday – its highest since last November.

The price of ‘Black Gold’ peeled back slightly during the afternoon session following this peak, but further gains are forecast, making the outlook for the Loonie

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Interest Rate Decision	2.25%	2.25%	2.25%
JPY	Household Spending (YoY) (Mar)	-5.3%	-4.2%	1.2%
JPY	Household Spending (MoM) (Mar)	0.5%	-0.3%	1.7%
JPY	Jobs/applications ratio (Mar)	1.30	1.28	1.28
JPY	National Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.0%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)	3.6%	2.9%	-5.2%
JPY	Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)	-1.1%	-1.5%	0.4%
JPY	BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
JPY	Interest Rate Decision	-0.10%	-0.10%	-0.10%
JPY	BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
GBP	Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Apr)	4.9%	5.0%	5.7%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
EUR	German Unemployment Change (Apr)	-16K	4K	0K
EUR	German Unemployment Rate (Apr)	6.2%	6.2%	6.2%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Apr)		-0.2%	0.8%
USD	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)		0.7%	1.4%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		260K	247K

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, April 29, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Japan – Showa Day
NZD	Building Consents (MoM) (Mar)			10.8%
NZD	ANZ Business Confidence (Apr)			3.2
AUD	PPI (QoQ) (Q1)		0.2%	0.3%
AUD	Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Mar)		0.6%	0.6%
EUR	German Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)		0.3%	-0.4%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		0.9%	1.0%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)		0.4%	0.3%
EUR	Unemployment Rate (Mar)		10.3%	10.3%
GBP	BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)		0.1%	0.1%
USD	Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar)		0.2%	0.1%
CAD	GDP (MoM) (Feb)		-0.1%	0.6%
CAD	RMPI (MoM) (Mar)		3.7%	-2.6%
USD	Chicago PMI (Apr)		53.0	53.6
USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations		80.2	79.6
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)		90.0	89.7
USD	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count			343