USD/CAD Fundamental Forecast – July 1, 2016

The USD/CAD added 19 points as the greenback rebounded and oil prices reversed some of yesterday’s gains. Gold also fell leaving the Loonie a bit weak. The pair is trading at 1.2955 remaining in a fairly tight trading range. The return of risk appetite to global markets eased the downward pressure on the loonie. Fundamentals are back on the table and Thursday June 30 will see the release of the monthly Canadian gross domestic product figures. The GDP is expected to have grown 0.1 percent and could push the CAD higher after the lower than expected 0.2 contractions last month. There are still concerns about the ability of the economy to grow in such adverse conditions. The impact of the Alberta wildfires on top of a climate of uncertainty trigged by the Brexit vote will keep the Bank of Canada (BoC) on alert.

The Canadian GDP is released monthly, unlike most other developed countries which post GDP on a quarterly basis. The key indicator provides an excellent indication of the health and direction of the economy. Traders should pay close attention to this indicator, as an unexpected reading can quickly affect the movement of USD/CAD.

GDP has posted two straight declines and these weak readings have weighed on the Canadian dollar. The markets are expecting better news in the April report, with an estimate of +0.1%.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.