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USD/CAD Fundamental Forecast – June 1, 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: May 31, 2016, 12:01 UTC

The USD/CAD gained 22 points as the greenback recovered earlier losses to trade in the green as traders expect a rate increase from the Fed in the near

USD/CAD Daily Forecast

The USD/CAD gained 22 points as the greenback recovered earlier losses to trade in the green as traders expect a rate increase from the Fed in the near term. The pair is trading at 1.3069. Traders are preparing for jobs data on both sides of the border. If U.S. payrolls due on Friday show solid job growth and if Yellen signals a rate hike in her speech on the following Monday, the dollar could break above the previous April peaks close to 112 yen, said Koichi Takamatsu, manager of forex at Nomura Securities.

Oil prices remain strong ahead of the June 2nd meeting and the oil sands fire is all but out and production is resuming once again, which might help support the Loonie but gold continues to fall against the stronger US dollar.

The loonie started the week lower as the Memorial Day holiday will severely limit liquidity. The week promises to be full of trading activity for all major pairs, but for now the is the calm before the storm. The week will feature the European Central Bank (ECB) rate statement and press conference, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in Vienna with friction between Saudi and Iran undermining the justification for the organization to exist. Employment data in the U.S. could further validate the Fed’s comments of a June interest rate hike if the pace of jobs recovery continues.

The top Canadian releases will be the monthly GDP data on Tuesday, May 31 at 8:30 am EDT and the trade balance to be published on Friday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  CNY Manufacturing PMI (May)   50.0 50.1
  CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)     53.5
  AUD GDP (QoQ) (Q1)   0.6% 0.6%
  AUD GDP (YoY) (Q1)   2.7% 3.0%
  CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)   49.3 49.4
  GBP Nationwide HPI (YoY) (May)   4.6% 4.9%
  GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) (May)   0.2% 0.2%
  EUR Manufacturing PMI (May)   51.5 51.5
  GBP Manufacturing PMI (May)   49.6 49.2
  USD Manufacturing PMI (May)   50.5 50.5
  USD ISM Manufacturing Employment   49.8 49.2
  USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)   50.5 50.8
  NZD GlobalDairyTrade Price Index     2.6%
  USD Beige Book      

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

May 30 11:10 Italy Eur 2-2.5bn 0.45% Jun 2021 BTP

Jun 01 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction

Jun 01 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Apr 2021 Bobl

Jun 01 11:30 UK Gbp 2.75bn 1.5% 2021 Gilt

Jun 01 17:20 Sweden Announces details of bond auction on Jun 08

Jun 02 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Jun 02 10:50 France Eur 8-9bn 2.25% May 2024, 0.5% May 2026 & 3.25%

Jun 02 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% 2019 I/L & Sek 0.5bn 0.125% 2026 I/L bonds

Jun 06 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Jun 08

Jun 07 11:00 Netherlands Eur 4-6bn Jan 2022 DSL

Jun 07 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

Jun 07 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction

Jun 07 11:30 UK 4.5% 2046 Gilt

Jun 08 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Jun 08 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Jun 08 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2018 Schatz

Jun 08 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Jun 09 11:30 UK 0.125% 2036 I/L Gilt

Jun 09 17:20 Sweden Announces details of I/L auction on Jun 16

 

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