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USD/CAD Fundamental Forecast – September 26, 2016

By:
Colin First

On our forecast for Friday, we had specified that the USDCAD pair would sit in a range between 1.3000 and 1.3060 until the release of the data from

USD/CAD Fundamental Forecast – September 26, 2016

On our forecast for Friday, we had specified that the USDCAD pair would sit in a range between 1.3000 and 1.3060 until the release of the data from  Canada later in the day which would then determine the course of movement of this pair for the rest of the day. This is exactly what happened as well as the pair stuck to the range for most part of the day and then came the disappointing retail sales from Canada.

The core retail sales was expected to come in at 0.5% but what we got was a shocker as the retail sales came in at a much worse rate of -0.1%. This was a real shocker for the market and the USDCAD pair took off. It broke through the resistance at 1.3060 and sky rocketed to 1.3160 within an hour of the data. There was also a mild bullishness to the USD towards the later part of Friday and this helped the pair further to reach the high at 1.3180 where it was met with strong resistance. It spent the rest of the day around that region and it continues to sit at 1.3174 as we write this.

USDCAD Hourly
USDCAD Hourly

For today, we expect the pair to continue to plod around this region for the large part of the day and it all comes down to the USD strength. The future direction of this pair would depend on the strength of the USD over the next few days. We expect the USD to have a bearish bias for the next few days. With this in mind, we would expect this pair to hold 1.3180 for the next few days and trade with a bearish bias. Below this price range, we can expect support at 1.3140 and then 1.3100 below that. With no major news out of Canada for today, we can expect this range to hold for today.

About the Author

Colin specializes in developing trading strategies and analyze financial instruments both technically and fundamentally. Colin holds a Bachelor of Engineering From Milwaukee University.

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