USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis August 20-24, 2012, Forecast
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Introduction: The Canadian Dollar moves in reaction to the US Dollar. Movements are small and easy to track and trade. The Canadian Dollar also responds to economic reports within Canada. It has little action against foreign currencies except during major moves or crisis.
The USD/CAD is the single biggest beneficiary of rising oil prices. Canada which is already the biggest exporter of oil to the US will experience a boost to its economy when oil price continue to increase. Therefore, if oil rises the Canadian dollar is likely to follow. Over the past years, the correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil prices has been approximately 81%.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/CAD ended the week up at 1.0107 as the US dollar gained on positive eco data. Overall it was a quiet week both in the US and Canada, with a continuing round of disappointing eco data out of Canada. CPI reported well under forecast where traders were expecting a higher than forecast print. In the US, a round of positive data helped give the US dollar some strength and on lower predictions of monetary stimulus the greenback added towards the end of the week.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Aug 17, 2012 |
1.0107 |
1.0135 |
1.0137 |
1.0103 |
-0.28% |
|
Aug 16, 2012 |
1.0135 |
1.0107 |
1.0142 |
1.0102 |
0.28% |
|
Aug 15, 2012 |
1.0107 |
1.0079 |
1.0114 |
1.0066 |
0.28% |
|
Aug 14, 2012 |
1.0079 |
1.0072 |
1.0093 |
1.0060 |
0.07% |
|
Aug 13, 2012 |
1.0072 |
1.0084 |
1.0095 |
1.0061 |
-0.12% |
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of August 13-17, 2012 actual v. forecast for the Canadian & US Dollar
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
|
Aug 14 |
12:30 |
USD |
0.8% |
0.4% |
-0.8% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.8% |
0.3% |
-0.7% |
||
|
Aug 15 |
12:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
Aug 16 |
12:30 |
USD |
0.81M |
0.77M |
0.76M |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
366K |
365K |
364K |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
-7.1 |
-4.7 |
-12.9 |
||
|
Aug 17 |
12:30 |
CAD |
-0.1% |
0.2% |
-0.4% |
|
|
13:55 |
USD |
73.6 |
72.5 |
72.3 |
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest: 1.0853 CAD on May 25, 2010.
Average: 1.0090 CAD over this period.
Lowest: 0.9407 CAD on Jan 26, 2011.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Canadian and American Markets
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Aug 21 |
12:30 |
CAD |
0.9% |
|
|
Aug 22 |
12:30 |
CAD |
0.5% |
|
|
12:30 |
CAD |
0.3% |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
4.37M |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
-3.7M |
||
|
18:00 |
USD |
|||
|
Aug 23 |
12:30 |
USD |
366K |
|
|
13:00 |
USD |
51.4 |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
350K |
||
|
Aug 24 |
12:30 |
USD |
-1.1% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
1.6% |
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