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USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – February 8-12, 2016 -Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Feb 6, 2016, 06:13 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/CAD recovered nicely this week with the CAD gaining steadily most of the week on surges in oil prices as well

USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – February 8-12, 2016 -Forecast

usdcad weekly bns
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/CAD recovered nicely this week with the CAD gaining steadily most of the week on surges in oil prices as well as the strong climb in gold. The US dollar eased close to 3%. The CAD is attempting to stabilize after a significant, but not unusual, slide in the early part of the year.   We have highlight‐

The late January high tends to be the high point, or very close to it, for spot until late in the year at least. A number of factors are coming together to suggest that the bear pressure on the CAD has been arrested for now, at least. Since the start of January, the tone of key data reports has shifted in the CAD’s favor, mainly because key Canadian data releases have tended to surprise on the upside.  Canadian international trade, wholesale trade, manufacturing sales, employment reports, for example have all reported better‐than‐consensus outcomes, for example.   Relative US‐Canada data surprises have turned lower and, if the turn in the trend is sustained, should weigh on USDCAD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

usdcad

Major Economic Events for the week:

 
Date Currency   Forecast
Feb 7 JPY Current Account 1.59T
Feb 8 CAD Building Permits m/m
USD Mortgage Delinquencies
Feb 9 AUD NAB Business Confidence
GBP Trade Balance -10.4B
USD JOLTS Job Openings 5.54M
AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Feb 10 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.0%
Feb 11 CAD NHPI m/m 0.3%
USD Unemployment Claims 287K
Feb 12 AUD Home Loans m/m 2.9%
EUR German Prelim GDP q/q 0.3%
EUR Flash GDP q/q 0.3%
USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.0%
USD Retail Sales m/m 0.1%
USD Import Prices m/m -1.4%
USD UoM Consumer Sentiment 92.6
Feb 13

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Feb 08 16:20 Italy Details of bond auction

Feb 09 11:00 Netherlands Holds DSL auction

Feb 09 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

Feb 09 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction

Feb 09 11:30 UK 0.125% 2026 Gilt linker auction

Feb 09 n/a UK Details of Gilt auction on Feb 17

Feb 09 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Feb 10 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn Mar 2018 Schatz

Feb 10 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on Feb 17

Feb 10 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Feb 11 N/A Italy Euro 4-5bn 30-yr syndicated bond auction

Feb 11 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Feb 11 11:10 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Feb 11 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction

Feb 11 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Feb 11 n/a US Details of 30-yr TIPS auction on Feb 18

Feb 12 11:10 France Details of bond auction on 18 Feb

 

 

 

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