Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/CAD recovered nicely this week with the CAD gaining steadily most of the week on surges in oil prices as well
The USD/CAD recovered nicely this week with the CAD gaining steadily most of the week on surges in oil prices as well as the strong climb in gold. The US dollar eased close to 3%. The CAD is attempting to stabilize after a significant, but not unusual, slide in the early part of the year. We have highlight‐
The late January high tends to be the high point, or very close to it, for spot until late in the year at least. A number of factors are coming together to suggest that the bear pressure on the CAD has been arrested for now, at least. Since the start of January, the tone of key data reports has shifted in the CAD’s favor, mainly because key Canadian data releases have tended to surprise on the upside. Canadian international trade, wholesale trade, manufacturing sales, employment reports, for example have all reported better‐than‐consensus outcomes, for example. Relative US‐Canada data surprises have turned lower and, if the turn in the trend is sustained, should weigh on USDCAD.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week:
Date | Currency | Forecast | |
Feb 7 | JPY | Current Account | 1.59T |
Feb 8 | CAD | Building Permits m/m | |
USD | Mortgage Delinquencies | ||
Feb 9 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence | |
GBP | Trade Balance | -10.4B | |
USD | JOLTS Job Openings | 5.54M | |
AUD | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | ||
Feb 10 | GBP | Manufacturing Production m/m | 0.0% |
Feb 11 | CAD | NHPI m/m | 0.3% |
USD | Unemployment Claims | 287K | |
Feb 12 | AUD | Home Loans m/m | 2.9% |
EUR | German Prelim GDP q/q | 0.3% | |
EUR | Flash GDP q/q | 0.3% | |
USD | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.0% | |
USD | Retail Sales m/m | 0.1% | |
USD | Import Prices m/m | -1.4% | |
USD | UoM Consumer Sentiment | 92.6 | |
Feb 13 |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Feb 08 16:20 Italy Details of bond auction
Feb 09 11:00 Netherlands Holds DSL auction
Feb 09 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction
Feb 09 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction
Feb 09 11:30 UK 0.125% 2026 Gilt linker auction
Feb 09 n/a UK Details of Gilt auction on Feb 17
Feb 09 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction
Feb 10 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn Mar 2018 Schatz
Feb 10 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on Feb 17
Feb 10 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction
Feb 11 N/A Italy Euro 4-5bn 30-yr syndicated bond auction
Feb 11 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction
Feb 11 11:10 Italy Announces details of bond auction
Feb 11 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction
Feb 11 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction
Feb 11 n/a US Details of 30-yr TIPS auction on Feb 18
Feb 12 11:10 France Details of bond auction on 18 Feb