USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 18-22, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Introduction: The Canadian Dollar moves in reaction to the US Dollar. Movements are small and easy to track and trade. The Canadian Dollar also responds to economic reports within Canada. It has little action against foreign currencies except during major moves or crisis.

The USD/CAD is the single biggest beneficiary of rising oil prices. Canada which is already the biggest exporter of oil to the US will experience a boost to its economy when oil price continue to increase. Therefore, if oil rises the Canadian dollar is likely to follow. Over the past years, the correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil prices has been approximately 81%. 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/CAD ended the week at 1.0215 falling from the beginning of the week. The USD lost momentum after poor eco data over the past two weeks began to bother investors. The USD fell on the DI from 83 to 82. The Canadian dollar was able to gain on the back of the USD.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 15, 2012

1.0215

1.0234

1.0256

1.0215

-0.19%

Jun 14, 2012

1.0234

1.0286

1.0294

1.0223

-0.51%

Jun 13, 2012

1.0286

1.0268

1.0304

1.0242

0.18%

Jun 12, 2012

1.0268

1.0310

1.0317

1.0252

-0.41%

Jun 11, 2012

1.0310

1.0218

1.0326

1.0201

0.91%

 Investors remained in risk aversion mode, but moved from the USD to gold and JPY. Canada is awaiting a response from the BoC this week.

The upcoming week will be more about news flow and market reaction to elections in Greece, France and Egypt. The USD will also remain weak, until the statement from the FOMC this week, as investors are hoping for more monetary stimulus.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic data for the week of June 11 – 15actual v. forecast for the Canadian and the US Dollar

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun 13

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

-0.4%

0.1%

-0.3%

USD

PPI m/m

-1.0%

-0.6%

-0.2%

USD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.2%

-0.1%

-0.2%

Jun 14

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

USD

Unemployment Claims

386K

377K

380K

Jun 15

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

74.1

77.5

79.3

 

Historical:

Highest: 1.0842 CAD on Nov 01, 2009.

Average: 1.0147 CAD over this period.

Lowest: 0.9407  CAD on Jan 26, 2011.

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Canadian and US Markets

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jun 18

Day 1

ALL

G20 Meetings

 

Jun 19

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.72M

Day 2

ALL

G20 Meetings

 

Jun 20

16:30

USD

FOMC Statement

 

18:00

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

 

18:15

USD

FOMC Press Conference

 

Jun 21

12:30

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

0.4%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

386K

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.62M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-5.8

Jun 22

12:30

CAD

CPI m/m

0.4%

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.