USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

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USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/CAD closed at 0.9798 with the USD adding some strength at the end of the week on a strong consumer confidence report. But there was a steady flow of supportive data all week, with unemployment claims falling for the first time in months. This followed the nonfarm payroll report last week showing a drop in unemployment from 8.1% to 7.8%

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Oct 12, 2012

0.9798

0.9786

0.9809

0.9768

0.12%

Oct 11, 2012

0.9786

0.9820

0.9835

0.9764

-0.36%

Oct 10, 2012

0.9821

0.9794

0.9830

0.9769

0.28%

Oct 09, 2012

0.9794

0.9762

0.9808

0.9745

0.32%

Oct 08, 2012

0.9763

0.9774

0.9800

0.9752

-0.11%

The Cad continues to suffer as oil prices remain low and on disappointing eco data.

 The appreciation of the Canadian dollar reflects the strength of Canada’s economy and commodity markets, the country’s finance minister said on Saturday, indicating comfort with the currency’s value.

Speaking on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank meetings in Tokyo, Jim Flaherty suggested the Canadian dollar would remain in its current trading range against the U.S. dollar for some time. The Canadian dollar recently hit a 13-month high against the greenback and data shows Canadian exports are falling.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 8-12, 2012 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 08

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

0.3%

0.0%

 

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5%

-0.8%

1.2%

Oct. 09

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-15%

-20%

-18%

 

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5%

-0.5%

2.8%

 

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

-1.1%

-0.6%

3.1%

 

GBP

Trade Balance 

-9.8B

-8.5B

-7.3B

 

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-1.2%

-1.1%

-0.8%

 

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate 

0.8%

 

0.1%

Oct. 10

USD

10-Year Note Auction 

1.700%

 

1.764%

Oct. 11

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.0%

0.4%

 

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0%

2.1%

 

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

0.1%

0.7%

 

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7%

1.1%

 

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.2B

-44.0B

-42.5B

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

339K

370K

369K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3273K

3275K

3288K

Oct. 12

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

-0.4%

0.6%

 

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

 

USD

PPI (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7%

1.7%

 

USD

PPI (YoY) 

2.1%

1.8%

2.0%

 

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.3%

2.5%

2.5%

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

83.1

78.0

78.3

 

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

75.0B

42.0B

-191.0B

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 1.0853 CAD on May 25, 2010.

Average: 1.0090 CAD over this period.

Lowest: 0.9407  CAD on Jan 26, 2011.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 15

08:15

CHF

PPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

0.8%

 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-5.0

-10.4

Oct. 16

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

2.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

-0.1%

2.0%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

-0.8%

1.4%

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

2.7%

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-16.0

-18.2

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.5%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.6%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

1.7%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

1.9%

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

67.0B

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2%

-1.2%

Oct. 17

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

 

1.5%

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

 

-15.0K

 Oct. 18

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

-0.2%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.1%

2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 15 09:10 Slovakia 

Oct 15 10:00 Norway 

Oct 16 08:30 Spain 

Oct 16 09:10 Greece 

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain 

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US

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