USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis April 3, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CHF is trading at 0.9036 up slightly. The Swiss SVME PMI reported slightly above forecast today, while Swiss retail sales tumbled far beyond expectations.

The US was supported by a strong manufacturer’s index, giving a boost to the greenback.

The pair moved between the high of 0.9070 and the low of 0.9002.

Economic Data for April 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

00:00

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

3.1% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 

-4

 

-1 

 

-4 

 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-7.8%

 

0.3% 

 

1.1% 

   

06:05

 

INR

 

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-15.2B

 

-13.0B 

 

-14.8B 

 

 

08:00

 

DKK

 

 

 

Danish Retail Sales (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-1.7% 

 

-3.3% 

   

08:15

 

CHF

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.8%

 

3.2% 

 

4.7% 

   

08:30

 

CHF

 

 

 

SVME PMI 

51.1

 

49.5 

 

49.0 

 

 

08:50

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.7

 

47.6 

 

47.6 

 

 

08:55

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

48.4

 

48.1 

 

48.1 

 

 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

47.7

 

47.7 

 

47.7 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

52.1

 

50.5 

 

51.5 

   

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

10.8%

 

10.8% 

 

10.7% 

 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index 

53.4

 

53.0 

 

52.4 

 

 

 

Economic Events scheduled for April 3, 2012 that affect the European and American Markets

T.B.D     GBP       Halifax House Price Index (MoM)           -0.3%                     -0.5%    

The Halifax House Price Index measures the change in the price of homes and properties financed by Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS), one of the U.K.’s largest mortgage lenders. It is a leading indicator of health in the housing sector.

10:00    EUR        GDP (QoQ)                                                   -0.3%                     -0.3%

 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. 

19:00     USD       FOMC Meeting Minutes

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee’s policy-setting meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes offer detailed insights regarding the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy, so currency traders carefully examine them for clues regarding the outcome of future interest rate decisions.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 03  09:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Apr 03  09:30  UK  Conventional Gilt Auction

Apr 04  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Apr 04  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on Apr 11

Apr 05  08:50  France  OAT auction

Apr 05  15:00  US Announces auctions 

Apr 05  15:30  Italy   Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12

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