USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis April 5, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

REMEMBER, MOST GLOBAL MARKETS ARE CLOSED ON FRIDAY APRIL 6, 2012 AND MANY ARE CLOSED ON MONDAY APRIL 9, 2012 ALSO. VOLUME WILL BE LIGHT AND TRADERS WILL BE POSITIONING THEMSELVES FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ECONOMIC REPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELEASED ON FRIDAY, IN THE US THE NON FARMS PAYROLL REPORTS WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY

The USD/CHF moved up today, as the greenback was able to gain on all of its trading partners. The pair is trading at 0.9163 moving off the low of 0.9096.

The release of the FOMC minutes on Tuesday afternoon (EST) set of a global sell off of assets, commodities and equities which was fueled again today over mounting worries about Spain.

The USD was further supported a labor market report showing improvement at a moderate pace, with private payrolls in March notching more than two years of gains, according to a monthly report released Wednesday by payrolls-processor Automatic Data Processing Inc.

Despite the moderate pace of the recovery, there were many reasons to be optimistic about the outlook, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Wednesday. In a speech to The Economic Club of Chicago, Geithner said that the economy was “making a lot of progress” working down excess debt. Household debt is down 17 percentage points relative to income since before the crisis, Geithner said. At the same time, financial sector leverage is down “substantially” and credit is expanding, he said. The challenge facing the American economy is not primarily about the health of the business community.

The number of mortgage applications filed in the U.S. last week rose 4.8% from the prior week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday, as re-financings picked up following six straight weeks of declines

Economic Events April 4, 2012 actual v. forecast

     

AUD

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.48B

 

1.00B 

 

-0.97B 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

2.2%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.4% 

   

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Services PMI 

55.3

 

53.5 

 

53.8 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

0.1% 

 

1.1% 

   

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

0.3%

 

1.2% 

 

-1.8% 

   

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

 

Polish Interest Rate Decision 

4.50%

 

4.50% 

 

4.50% 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RUB

 

 

 

Russian CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

209K

 

200K 

 

230K 

   

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

ECB Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

56.0

 

57.0 

 

57.3 

   

 

Economic Events scheduled for April 5, 2012 that affect the European and American Markets

08:15     CHF       CPI (MoM)                                                         0.4%       0.3%    

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.             

08:30     EUR       Dutch CPI (YoY)                                                              2.50%    

Consumer Price index is the most frequently used indicator of inflation and reflect changes in the cost of acquiring a fixed basket of goods and services by the average consumer. The weights are usually derived from household expenditure surveys.

13:30     USD      Initial Jobless Claims                                     355K       359K                    

13:30     USD      Continuing Jobless Claims                          3350K     3340K

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 04  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on Apr 11

Apr 05  08:50  France  OAT auction

Apr 05  15:00  US Announces auctions 

Apr 05  15:30  Italy   Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12

 

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