USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 7, 2012, Forecast

Economic Events: (GMT)

It is a quiet day around the world with very little in the way of economic events on Tuesday

15:00     USA       Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration.

USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis February 7, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CHF trading at 0.9233

Investors worried about Greece were more concerned with a safe haven then anything else this afteroon. The pair hit a high in mid day trading as the greenback continued to gain against all of its trading partners.

The euro continues to fall against all its trading partners. Combining a fall in GDP and unnerving news from Greece and comments from the EU, investors are pulling up stakes. News from Greece was not promising. Greece failed to agree on new austerity measures across political parties yesterday, a requirement for the proposed bailout to avoid default in March.  There was some progress on bank recapitalization.  Overcoming the political realities of further austerity after almost 5 years of recession is proving very difficult. 

There cannot be a new program for Greece unless the conditions of the troika are met,” Merkel said at a joint press conference here with Sarkozy, referring to the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank

The EU’s statistics data on government debt to GDP ratios in the euro zone.for the 17 countries fell slightly to 87.4% of GDP.  The ratios for countries in need of EU/IMF funding saw thier ratios rise, however.  Portugal, Greece, and Ireland  (PIIGS) all showed an increase in the debt to GDP ratio, providing more evidence that austerity measures cannot solve the debt crisis.

Economic Data results prior trading day ( key  better than expected worse than expected at forecast )      

AUD       MI Inflation Gauge (MoM)                          0.2%                      0.5%

AUD       Retail Sales (MoM)                                    -0.1%                    0.2%                      0.1%                     

 AUD      ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)              6.00%                                                   -0.60%                 

 IDR        Indonesian GDP (YoY)                             6.5%                     6.5%                      6.5%                     

TWD      Taiwanese CPI (YoY)                                2.4%                     1.6%                       2.0%                     

EUR        Sentix Investor Confidence                     -11.1                     -14.6                      -21.1                     

 EUR       German Factory Orders (MoM)               1.7%                     0.5%                      -4.9% 

Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales

Feb 07  09:00  Netherlands Eur 5.0bn Jul 2022 DSL

Feb 07  10:10  Greece  6M T-bill auction

Feb 07  10.30  UK  Auctions 1.75% 2017 conventional Gilt

Feb 07  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Feb 16

Feb 07  18:00  US  Auctions 3Y Notes

Feb 08  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Feb 08  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Feb 2017 Bobl

Feb 08  10:30  Swiss  Bond auction

Feb 08  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Feb 13

Feb 08  18:00  US  Auctions 10Y Notes

Feb 09  10:10  Sweden  Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 09  15:30  Sweden  Details I/L bond auction on Mar 23

Feb 09  16:00  US  Announces auctions of 30Y TIPS on Feb 16

Feb 09  16:30  Italy   Details BTP/CCTeu auction on Feb 14

Feb 09  18:00  Italy   Auctions 30Y Bonds

Feb 10  11:00  Belgium  OLO auction