USD/CNY Fundamental Analysis April 17, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation: (close of Asian session)

The USD/CNY  has climbed in today’s trading to 6.3129 moving off the low of 6.2987 as the USD picked up momentum. Continued worries over the slowdown in China and growing debt in Spain and Italy, investors continued to move to safety. Although the numbers in the US have been mixed and confusing, there is no doubt that the economy is improving. The worries about China, are the longer term effects of the continued economic problems in Europe.

The currency fluctuation may also be a result of the new flexibility of the Chinese currency.

The Chinese government announced on Saturday that it would allow the renminbi to vary more in value against the dollar during each day’s trading, but gave no hint that it would accept the Obama administration’s demands to allow the currency to show a longer-term trend of appreciation against the dollar.

Economic Data Released on April 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

JPY

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

3.25%

 

3.25% 

 

3.25% 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.9%

 

20.8% 

 

21.5% 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese GDP (YoY) 

8.1%

 

8.3% 

 

8.9% 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

11.9%

 

11.5% 

 

11.4% 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

15.2%

 

15.0% 

 

14.7% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Finnish CPI (YoY) 

2.90%

 

 

 

3.10% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (MoM) 

1.9%

 

1.2% 

 

2.5% 

   

 

BRL

 

 

 

Brazilian Retail Sales (YoY) 

9.6%

 

9.0% 

 

7.3% 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

 

Polish CPI (YoY) 

3.9%

 

3.9% 

 

4.3% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.3% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 

75.7

 

76.2 

 

76.2 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

Economic Events scheduled for April 17, 2012 that affect the NZD, AUD, and JPY

05:30     JPY         Industrial Production (MoM)                                                                     -1.2%    

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.                                        

13:30     USD      Building Permits                                                              0.71M                   0.71M    

Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.    

13:30     USD      Housing Starts                                                                 0.70M                   0.70M  

Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.   

14:15     USD      Industrial Production (MoM)                                         0.5%       

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Apr 17  08:30  Spain  12 & 18M T-bill auction

Apr 17  09:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Apr 18  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Apr 18  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn 0.25% Mar 2014 Schatz

Apr 18  14:30  Sweden  Details T-bill auction on Apr 25

Apr 19  08:30  Spain  Obligacion auction

Apr 19  08:50  France  BTAN auction

Apr 19  09:30  UK  Auctions 0.125% I/L Gilt 2029

Apr 19  09:50  France  OATi auction

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