Advertisement
Advertisement

USD/CNY Fundamental Forecast – February 9, 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Feb 8, 2016, 05:46 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/CNY is flat with the Chinese Lunar holiday beginning today and continuing until Friday leaving Asian markets a bit

USD/CNY Fundamental Forecast – February 9, 2016

usdcny monday bns
Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/CNY is flat with the Chinese Lunar holiday beginning today and continuing until Friday leaving Asian markets a bit quieter. Ahead of the holiday on Saturday, the PBOC announced additional stimulus and then this morning’s release of currency reserves kept traders busy before the holiday. The yuan is trading at 6.5739.

China’s massive foreign exchange reserves shrank for the third month in a row to the lowest levels since May 2012.

The People’s Bank of China reported Sunday that during January reserves dropped by $99.5 billion to $3.23 trillion, slightly more than the $3.2 trillion markets expected in their poll Reuters said after the data was released.

At $99.5 billion the fall is second only to December’s drop in reserves of $107.9 billion, and shows the trouble Beijing is having restraining capital flows and fighting the trend toward a weaker Yuan.

For the year to December reserves dropped $513 billion. But if the current pace keeps up China will burn through more than $1 trillion of its war chest this year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole. Please click on the links to find the most recent reports for this asset.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
    China – Lunar New Year
    New Zealand – Waitangi
  JPY Adjusted Current Account  1.64T   1.42T  
  JPY Current Account n.s.a. (Dec)  0.96T 0.987T 1.144T

 

usdcny

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
  China – Lunar New Year
  AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)     -2.7%  
  GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jan)   0.4% 0.1%  
  AUD NAB Business Confidence (Jan)     3  
  EUR German Industrial Production (MoM)   0.4% -0.3%  
  EUR German Trade Balance (Dec)   20.2B 19.7B  
  GBP Trade Balance (Dec)   -10.35B -10.64B  
  GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (Dec)   -2.55B -2.45B  
  USD JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)   5.400M 5.431M

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time and Country

Feb 08 16:20 Italy Details of bond auction

Feb 09 11:00 Netherlands Holds DSL auction

Feb 09 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

Feb 09 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction

Feb 09 11:30 UK 0.125% 2026 Gilt linker auction

Feb 09 n/a UK Details of Gilt auction on Feb 17

Feb 09 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Feb 10 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn Mar 2018 Schatz

Feb 10 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on Feb 17

Feb 10 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Feb 11 N/A Italy Euro 4-5bn 30-yr syndicated bond auction

Feb 11 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Feb 11 11:10 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Feb 11 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction

Feb 11 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Feb 11 n/a US Details of 30-yr TIPS auction on Feb 18

Feb 12 11:10 France Details of bond auction on 18 Feb

 

 

About the Author

Did you find this article useful?

Advertisement