USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis August 1, 2012, Forecast

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By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY remains powerful trading at 78.18 as risk aversion remains the overall market theme, as investor are not quite sure what to expect from the FOMC and the ECB and they are not sure if the ECB can follow through with their promises of last week.

Japan releases almost all of its eco data at one time and this began today, with a series of surprises, unemployment dipped in Japan, but household spending declined more than expected. And manufacturing PMI dipped from prior report and is well under the magical 50 number reporting at 47.9.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Economic Data July 31, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

00:00

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.1% 

 

1.3% 

   

 

00:15

 

JPY

 

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

47.9

 

 

 

49.9 

 

 

 

00:30

 

JPY

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.3%

 

4.4% 

 

4.4% 

 

 

 

00:30

 

JPY

 

 

 

Household Spending (YoY) 

1.6%

 

2.9% 

 

4.0% 

 

 

 

01:30

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese GDP (YoY) 

-0.16%

 

0.50% 

 

0.39% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

JPY

 

 

 

Average Cash Earnings (YoY) 

0.6%

 

0.1% 

 

-1.1% 

   

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-2.5%

 

-14.2% 

 

27.0% 

   

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

03:00

 

SGD

 

 

 

Singaporean Unemployment Rate 

2.0%

 

 

 

2.1% 

 

 

 

03:00

 

SGD

 

 

 

Singaporean Bank Landing (MoM) 

452.57B

 

 

 

445.00B 

 

 

 

04:00

 

NZD

 

 

 

Business Confidence 

15.10

 

 

 

12.60 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Aug 1

1:30

AUD

HPI q/q

-1.1%

 

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

176K

 

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

49.7

 

18:15

USD

FOMC Statement

 

Aug 2

1:30

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

0.5%

 

1:30

AUD

Trade Balance

-0.29B

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 
 

14:00

USD

Factory Orders m/m

0.7%

 

23:30

AUD

AIG Services Index

48.8

Aug 3

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

80K

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

 

12:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

0.3%

 

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

52.1

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