USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis August 13, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 10, 2012 6:18 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY finally broke above the 78.50 level; yesterday the pair was sitting right at 78.51 before declining after announcements from the BoJ, that they were holding rates and policy. The pair are trading at 78.57 and climbing this morning

The USD eventually strengthened on positive eco data, with the US trade balance and jobs report adding positive sentiment.

The Japanese economy has been growing suspect with a decline in Core Machinery orders below forecast and a decline in CGPI this morning. This added to negative eco data from China, all together weakened the JPY.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 9 -10, 2012 actual v. forecast (it is important to note the Chinese data releases)

Aug. 09

AUD

Employment Change

14.0K

10.0K

-28.3K

AUD

Unemployment Rate

5.2%

5.3%

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY)

1.8%

1.7%

2.2%

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY)

-2.9%

-2.5%

-2.1%

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM)

0.1%

-0.1%

-0.6%

JPY

Interest Rate Decision

0.10%

0.10%

CNY

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)

20.4%

20.5%

20.4%

CNY

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)

9.2%

9.8%

9.5%

CNY

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)

13.1%

13.7%

GBP

Trade Balance

-10.1B

-8.6B

-8.4B

CAD

Housing Starts

208.5K

213.0K

222.1K

CAD

Trade Balance

-1.8B

-1.0B

-0.9B

USD

Trade Balance

-42.9B

-47.5B

-48.0B

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

361K

370K

367K

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3332K

3280K

3279K

Aug. 10

PEN

Peruvian Interest Rate Decision

4.25%

JPY

CGPI (YoY)

-2.1%

-1.6%

-1.3%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Aug 13	13th-14th	NZD	REINZ HPI m/m	0.3%
	22:45	NZD	Core Retail Sales q/q	-2.5%
	23:50	JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
	23:50	JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity m/m	0.7%
Aug 14	1:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence	-3
	1:30	AUD	New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m	-0.6%
	12:30	USD	Core Retail Sales m/m	-0.4%
	12:30	USD	PPI m/m	0.1%
	12:30	USD	Retail Sales m/m	-0.5%
	14:00	USD	Business Inventories m/m	0.3%
Aug 15	0:30	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	3.7%
	1:30	AUD	Wage Price Index q/q	0.9%
	12:30	USD	Core CPI m/m	0.2%
	12:30	USD	Empire State Manufacturing Index	7.4
	13:00	USD	TIC Long-Term Purchases	55.0B
	13:15	USD	Capacity Utilization Rate	78.9%
	13:15	USD	Industrial Production m/m	0.4%
	14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories
Aug 16	1:00	AUD	MI Inflation Expectations	3.3%
	12:30	USD	Building Permits	0.76M
	12:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.76M
	14:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	-12.9
	22:45	NZD	PPI Input q/q	0.3%
Aug 17	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 13 09:10 Italy

Aug 13 09:10 Norway

Aug 13 09:30 Germany

Aug 14 09:10 Greece

Aug 14 09:10 Italy

Aug 14 09:30 Belgium

Aug 14 14:30 UK

Aug 15 09:10 Sweden

Aug 16 09:30 UK

Aug 16 15:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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