USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis August 14, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY is trading at 78.31 towards the end of the Asian session Monday morning. Negative economic data continues to weigh heavily on the currency. After two weeks of poor eco data, this morning Japan released their year over year and quarterly GDP. The releases printed well below market forecast. The quarter fell from 1.3% the previous quarter to 0.2%, and expectations were 0.6%.

Traders focus over the past month has kept markets trading in risk aversion mode and currencies were not as responsive toward eco data.

Although US numbers have been disappointing, the US economy is moving just more slowly then expected whereas Japan is moving towards recession.

If traders ever leave the hopes and dreams of monetary stimulus and this pair were to properly balance we will see the dollar gain. The pair should be trading over the 79 price level.

There is a good deal of eco data due this week in the US, if we see a positive retail sales number we should see the dollar strengthen.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 13

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.6% 

 

1.3% 

   

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

GDP Price Index (YoY) 

-1.1%

 

-0.8% 

 

-1.3% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 14

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

-3

 

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

-0.6%

 

12:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

-0.4%

 

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

0.1%

 

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.5%

 

14:00

USD

Business Inventories m/m

0.3%

Aug 15

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

3.7%

 

1:30

AUD

Wage Price Index q/q

0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

 

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

7.4

 

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

55.0B

 

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

78.9%

 

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.4%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Aug 16

1:00

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

3.3%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-12.9

 

22:45

NZD

PPI Input q/q

0.3%

Aug 17

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 14  09:10  Greece 

Aug 14  09:10  Italy

Aug 14  09:30  Belgium

Aug 14  14:30  UK

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US 

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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