USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis August 28, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY is trading at 78.75 breaking out of its range in the low 78.00 level. The US dollar continues to gather momentum, even though the likelihood of Fed stimulus was peaked after a letter from Ben Bernanke to Rep Issa in the US said that the Fed had the ability to do more to assist the economy and intended to do so at the proper time, this letter was drafted after the recent economic releases that caused investors to question the outcome of the FOMC, after minutes released earlier this week from last month’s meeting supported stimulus.

The JPY has been dealing with internal turmoil both politically and financially after a rash of negative eco reports and little support from the BoJ. Last week’s Trade Balance report was negative for Japan and this week we are looking at Retail Sales and Industrial Production and Core CPI.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 24 & 27, 2012 actual v. forecast (there were no releases for the AUD, NZD or JPY on Monday morning)

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 24

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

-1.5%

 

2.8% 

 

1.9% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.5%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.7% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.6% 

 

-0.8% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

-2.2% 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

4.2%

 

2.4% 

 

1.6% 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Previous

Aug. 28

15:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

65.9 

 

02:30

AUD

Construction Work Done (QoQ) 

5.5% 

Aug. 29

23:45

NZD

Building Consents (MoM) 

5.7% 

 

00:50

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.2% 

 

02:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) 

-2.5% 

Aug. 30

02:30

AUD

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

6.1% 

Aug. 31

00:30

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.6% 

 

00:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.4% 

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

28/8  10:30  Spain

28/8  11:00  Italy 

28/8  19:00  US 

29/8  11:00  Italy 

29/8  19:00  US 

30/8  05:35  Japan

30/8  11:00  Italy 

30/8  19:00  US

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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