USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis August 7, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY is trading at 78.46 remaining in the 10day old range, trading in the bottom half of the 78 price, as the USD has not been able to gain strength against the JPY.

After Friday’s release of a positive jobs report, investors rallied and moved into more risk assets, reducing the risk aversion pressures on the USD and the JPY but the JPY has been the biggest loser as traders move into other assets, as it had been the largest benefactor during the risk aversion mode.

The Bank of Japan is scheduled to meet this week, but regardless of rhetoric from the politicians and the BoJ governor, little is expected.

The outlook from China remains stressed but the possibility of additional monetary stimulus will support all the regional economies and currencies.

China’s central bank said it will keep pursuing a “prudent” monetary policy and the nation’s economy will maintain stable growth even amid the risk the global recovery will falter.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 06

 

AUD

 

 

 

MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) 

0.2%

 

 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese CPI (YoY) 

2.46%

 

2.02% 

 

1.77% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) 

-0.80%

 

 

 

-1.10% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Aug 7

4:30

AUD

Cash Rate

3.50%

3.50%

 

4:30

AUD

RBA Rate Statement

   
 

23:50

JPY

Current Account

 

0.28T

Aug 8

1:30

AUD

Home Loans m/m

 

-1.2%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q

 

-0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

 

1.3%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

   
 

22:45

NZD

Employment Change q/q

 

0.4%

 

22:45

NZD

Unemployment Rate

 

6.7%

 

23:50

JPY

Core Machinery Orders m/m

 

-14.8%

Aug 9

1:30

AUD

Employment Change

 

-27.0K

 

1:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate

 

5.2%

 

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

 

-48.7B

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   

Aug 10

1:30

AUD

RBA Monetary Policy Statement

   
 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

 

-2.7%

 

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

 

-59.7B

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 07  00:30  Japan

Aug 07  09:15  Austria

Aug 07  14:30  UK

Aug 07  17:00  US

Aug 08  09:30  Germany

Aug 08  10:00  Norway

Aug 08  15:30  Italy

Aug 08  17:00  US

Aug 09  15:30  Italy

Aug 09  17:00  US

Aug 10  10:00  Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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