USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis August 7, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 06, 2012 4:59 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY is trading at 78.46 remaining in the 10day old range, trading in the bottom half of the 78 price, as the USD has not been able to gain strength against the JPY.

After Friday’s release of a positive jobs report, investors rallied and moved into more risk assets, reducing the risk aversion pressures on the USD and the JPY but the JPY has been the biggest loser as traders move into other assets, as it had been the largest benefactor during the risk aversion mode.

The Bank of Japan is scheduled to meet this week, but regardless of rhetoric from the politicians and the BoJ governor, little is expected.

The outlook from China remains stressed but the possibility of additional monetary stimulus will support all the regional economies and currencies.

China’s central bank said it will keep pursuing a “prudent” monetary policy and the nation’s economy will maintain stable growth even amid the risk the global recovery will falter.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 06

AUD

MI Inflation Gauge (MoM)

0.2%

-0.2%

TWD

Taiwanese CPI (YoY)

2.46%

2.02%

1.77%

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)

-0.80%

-1.10%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Aug 7	4:30	AUD	Cash Rate	3.50%	3.50%
	4:30	AUD	RBA Rate Statement
	23:50	JPY	Current Account		0.28T
Aug 8	1:30	AUD	Home Loans m/m		-1.2%
	12:30	USD	Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q		-0.9%
	12:30	USD	Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q		1.3%
	14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories
	22:45	NZD	Employment Change q/q		0.4%
	22:45	NZD	Unemployment Rate		6.7%
	23:50	JPY	Core Machinery Orders m/m		-14.8%
Aug 9	1:30	AUD	Employment Change		-27.0K
	1:30	AUD	Unemployment Rate		5.2%
	12:30	USD	Trade Balance		-48.7B
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims
Aug 10	1:30	AUD	RBA Monetary Policy Statement
	12:30	USD	Import Prices m/m		-2.7%
	18:00	USD	Federal Budget Balance		-59.7B

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 07 00:30 Japan

Aug 07 09:15 Austria

Aug 07 14:30 UK

Aug 07 17:00 US

Aug 08 09:30 Germany

Aug 08 10:00 Norway

Aug 08 15:30 Italy

Aug 08 17:00 US

Aug 09 15:30 Italy

Aug 09 17:00 US

Aug 10 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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