USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis August 8, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY regained its momentum today, pushing the USD back below the 78.50 range to trade at 78.27. The Bank of Japan rate and policy meeting concludes tomorrow, but no changes are expected.

There was little news to drive trade and that instead buyers were balancing out their dollar weightings with other currencies. This is hardly the start of a risk-on move; instead, it appears to be diversification away from the world’s reserve currency, with the Japanese yen leading the majors thus far. With the possibility of the FOMC providing stimulus the USD is expected to remain weak throughout the month.

There is little on the eco calendar for the US and Europe today and little is expected in news flow that would have major currency affects. Spain is expected to finally request an official bailout and news on Greece is expected.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 7, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 07

 

GBP

 

 

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) 

0.1%

 

-0.2% 

 

1.4% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

AIG Construction Index 

32.6

 

 

 

34.8 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 8

1:30

AUD

Home Loans m/m

-1.2%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q

-0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

1.3%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 
 

22:45

NZD

Employment Change q/q

0.4%

 

22:45

NZD

Unemployment Rate

6.7%

 

23:50

JPY

Core Machinery Orders m/m

-14.8%

Aug 9

1:30

AUD

Employment Change

-27.0K

 

1:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate

5.2%

 

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-48.7B

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Aug 10

1:30

AUD

RBA Monetary Policy Statement

 
 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%

 

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 08  09:30  Germany

Aug 08  10:00  Norway

Aug 08  15:30  Italy

Aug 08  17:00  US

Aug 09  15:30  Italy

Aug 09  17:00  US

Aug 10  10:00  Belgium

Aug 13  09:10  Italy

Aug 13  09:10  Norway

Aug 13  09:30  Germany

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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