USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis August 8, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 07, 2012 5:48 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY regained its momentum today, pushing the USD back below the 78.50 range to trade at 78.27. The Bank of Japan rate and policy meeting concludes tomorrow, but no changes are expected.

There was little news to drive trade and that instead buyers were balancing out their dollar weightings with other currencies. This is hardly the start of a risk-on move; instead, it appears to be diversification away from the world’s reserve currency, with the Japanese yen leading the majors thus far. With the possibility of the FOMC providing stimulus the USD is expected to remain weak throughout the month.

There is little on the eco calendar for the US and Europe today and little is expected in news flow that would have major currency affects. Spain is expected to finally request an official bailout and news on Greece is expected.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 7, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 07

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY)

0.1%

-0.2%

1.4%

AUD

AIG Construction Index

32.6

34.8

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Aug 8	1:30	AUD	Home Loans m/m	-1.2%
	12:30	USD	Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q	-0.9%
	12:30	USD	Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q	1.3%
	14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories
	22:45	NZD	Employment Change q/q	0.4%
	22:45	NZD	Unemployment Rate	6.7%
	23:50	JPY	Core Machinery Orders m/m	-14.8%
Aug 9	1:30	AUD	Employment Change	-27.0K
	1:30	AUD	Unemployment Rate	5.2%
	12:30	USD	Trade Balance	-48.7B
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims
Aug 10	1:30	AUD	RBA Monetary Policy Statement
	12:30	USD	Import Prices m/m	-2.7%
	18:00	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-59.7B

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 08 09:30 Germany

Aug 08 10:00 Norway

Aug 08 15:30 Italy

Aug 08 17:00 US

Aug 09 15:30 Italy

Aug 09 17:00 US

Aug 10 10:00 Belgium

Aug 13 09:10 Italy

Aug 13 09:10 Norway

Aug 13 09:30 Germany

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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