USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis July 31, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY is trading at 78.40 remaining in the longer term range between of the low 78.00 number. With risk aversion dissipating, both the JPY and the USD have lost favor. Traders have been moving into more risk assets, with gold climbing and the commodity currencies adding strength.

The Japanese economy continues to show weakness with today’s release of Industrial Production reporting well below market forecasts. As the safety of the JPY fades, and fundamentals come back to play, we should see the JPY lose some of its momentum and eventually see the US rise to the 80 price.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 29-30, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 29

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean manufacturing BSI Index 

69.00

 

 

 

81.00 

   

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Building Consents (MoM) 

5.7%

 

 

 

-7.1% 

 

 

Jul. 30

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

1.5% 

 

-3.4% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

2.8%

 

 

 

0.7% 

 

 
                           

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 31

1:00

NZD

NBNZ Business Confidence

12.6

 

1:30

AUD

Building Approvals m/m

27.3%

 

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit m/m

0.5%

 

1:30

JPY

Average Cash Earnings y/y

-1.1%

 

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.1%

 

12:30

USD

Employment Cost Index q/q

0.4%

 

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.0%

 

13:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

-1.9%

 

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

52.9

 

14:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

62.0

Aug 1

1:30

AUD

HPI q/q

-1.1%

 

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

176K

 

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

49.7

 

18:15

USD

FOMC Statement

 

Aug 2

1:30

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

0.5%

 

1:30

AUD

Trade Balance

-0.29B

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 
 

14:00

USD

Factory Orders m/m

0.7%

 

23:30

AUD

AIG Services Index

48.8

Aug 3

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

80K

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

 

12:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

0.3%

 

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

52.1

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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