USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis July 31, 2012, Forecast

Posted July 30, 2012 4:25 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY is trading at 78.40 remaining in the longer term range between of the low 78.00 number. With risk aversion dissipating, both the JPY and the USD have lost favor. Traders have been moving into more risk assets, with gold climbing and the commodity currencies adding strength.

The Japanese economy continues to show weakness with today’s release of Industrial Production reporting well below market forecasts. As the safety of the JPY fades, and fundamentals come back to play, we should see the JPY lose some of its momentum and eventually see the US rise to the 80 price.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 29-30, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jul. 29

KRW

South Korean manufacturing BSI Index

69.00

81.00

NZD

Building Consents (MoM)

5.7%

-7.1%

Jul. 30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM)

-0.1%

1.5%

-3.4%

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM)

2.8%

0.7%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Jul 31	1:00	NZD	NBNZ Business Confidence	12.6
	1:30	AUD	Building Approvals m/m	27.3%
	1:30	AUD	Private Sector Credit m/m	0.5%
	1:30	JPY	Average Cash Earnings y/y	-1.1%
	12:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.1%
	12:30	USD	Employment Cost Index q/q	0.4%
	12:30	USD	Personal Spending m/m	0.0%
	13:00	USD	S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y	-1.9%
	13:45	USD	Chicago PMI	52.9
	14:00	USD	CB Consumer Confidence	62.0
Aug 1	1:30	AUD	HPI q/q	-1.1%
	12:15	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	176K
	14:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI	49.7
	18:15	USD	FOMC Statement
Aug 2	1:30	AUD	Retail Sales m/m	0.5%
	1:30	AUD	Trade Balance	-0.29B
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims
	14:00	USD	Factory Orders m/m	0.7%
	23:30	AUD	AIG Services Index	48.8
Aug 3	12:30	USD	Non-Farm Employment Change	80K
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Rate	8.2%
	12:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings m/m	0.3%
	14:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	52.1

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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